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广电电气(601616)调研报告:元器件将是新成长驱动引擎

國泰君安 ·  Nov 28, 2013 00:00  · Researches

Guide to this report: We believe that on the basis of recovering from the difficult situation, the release of new products in 2014 will open up a new growth cycle. High-end localized components meet the characteristics of small companies, large markets, and high profits. The volume is imminent, and will support the company's long-term growth. Investment Essentials: Maintaining an “Overweight” rating. We believe that the company's management level has reached an inflection point, and that the number of new products released since 2014 has maintained the EPS forecast of 0.08/0.20/0.34 yuan for 2013-15, and maintained a target price of 5 yuan, corresponding to 25 times PE in 2014. Catalysts may include: introduction of distribution network construction plans, release of autonomous components, bidding for west-east gas pipelines, and monetization of land appreciation for the South Bridge. High-end components are the most profitable part of the industrial chain, and there is plenty of room for import substitution. Due to high technical barriers, the components link in the primary power distribution industry chain has a pricing power advantage, and the gross margin of high-end components is about 50%. We estimate that the annual market capacity of high-end components has reached 20 billion yuan. Currently, all foreign brands occupy it, and there is plenty of room for import substitution. Assuming that the company's share can reach 5% in the future, independent high-end components have the potential to rebuild a radio and television. The company's R&D, product, brand and channel layout have been completed. The company has been deploying high-end components for many years. At present, the localization of all three frameworks has been completed, and the peak period of early R&D and product investment has passed. We expect the business to successfully turn losses into profits in 2013. Thanks to years of joint venture history and brand promotion efforts, the company's high-end brand image has been accepted by customers. Currently, the marketing network has been built on a certain scale, and the number of industry and regional partners continues to grow. We expect components to enter the fast track of growth, and the performance-driving effect will be significant. The company's sales are divided into two models: export sales and self-sufficiency. Based on the expansion of channels and the increase in export sales volume, we believe that the company will vigorously promote an increase in the self-sufficiency rate (components account for 30-50% of the cost of switch cabinets; currently, the self-sufficiency rate is less than 20%). We believe that in 2014, the volume of the company's autonomous components will increase to more than 350 million yuan (growth rate of over 75%), and at the same time enter a profit harvesting period. The characteristics of high gross profit, low investment, and fast turnover in this business will lead to significant profit flexibility. Risk factors: Risk of unstable management personnel reproduction, uncertainty in the process of new business development.

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