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嘉麟杰(002486)调研报告:先行复苏毛利提升 投资皿鎏成新亮点

國泰君安 ·  Dec 10, 2013 00:00  · Researches

Guide to this report: High-end outdoor demand is picking up, industry recovery is driving up gross profit, the company's production focuses on the depth of the value chain, and the high opening rate has led to the release of production capacity. With the strength of Saanjiu Software, the game business has become a new bright spot. For the first time, coverage was given an “increase in holdings” rating. Investment points: Core opinion: The company specializes in high-end outdoor fabrics. The third quarter of 2013 benefited from the influence of the leading recovery in the sub-industry, and the reversal of performance was determined. We expect the company to continue to show a steady high growth trend in 2014, and investing in Sailiu Software is another growth point. We predict that the company's main business EPS from 2013 to 2015 will be 0.22, 0.29, and 0.34 yuan respectively. Considering the investment in the game business, the “increased holdings” rating was given for the first time, with a target price of 10 yuan. Recommended logic: 1. In 2012, international consumption was weak, and downstream enterprises filled orders. The company's performance was under pressure, and revenue declined markedly year on year. The industry has recovered since the third quarter of 2013. Judging from optional orders and recovery stages, high-end demand has clearly reversed; 2. The recovery of the high-end outdoor industry has spawned downstream enterprises to launch new fabrics, leading to the release of the company's production capacity. The company focuses on new fabric research and development, and focuses on the depth of the value chain. The high opening rate is significantly higher than the industry average of 60% to 65%, thus driving the company's gross profit to increase. We expect that the transmission role of terminal demand will continue in the future, and orders are expected to continue to grow at a high rate; the investment target of 328 million is highly qualified, and the investment scale and risk are manageable, which is expected to bring great benefits. The investment in Saanjiu is a new highlight: the growth trajectory of Saanjiu has determined that its ability to produce quality games is superior to most companies that started with the production of functional mobile games. The level of art of the Saanliu software and the ability to develop serious games will have a greater advantage in a 4G environment. The company is currently at a critical point in the transformation from ODM to self-development. Self-developed mobile game products include “Pocket Master”, which has already been launched in Taiwan, and “Fist the World”, a horizontal fighting game released in the first quarter of 2014. Catalysts: “Pocket Master” and “Fist in the World” risk of excellent online distribution results in mainland China: the risk that the recovery in high-end outdoor demand is lower than what we expected; the risk that the turnover of the two games of Dishanliu falls short of expectations after the launch of the two games

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