The Tianjin Free Trade area is expected to be approved in the second batch, and Tianjin has become a recent market hot spot. Tianjin put forward the idea of a China-Japan-South Korea free trade zone as early as 2002. The "overall Plan for the Comprehensive Reform of Tianjin Binhai New area" approved by the State Council in March 2008 clearly stated that the Dongjiang bonded Port area "will carry out reform exploration for the establishment of a free trade port area when the conditions are ripe". In the first half of this year, the Tianjin free trade zone plan was reported to the relevant central departments earlier than the Shanghai free trade zone. After the Shanghai free trade zone was approved, everyone's voice for the Tianjin free trade zone was even louder. The establishment of the free trade zone will help to attract foreign investment, stimulate investment, stimulate rapid economic development, so as to attract high-quality talents, and will also bring more real estate demand. Judging from the approval of the Shanghai Free Trade Zone, although the construction of the free trade zone has not yet taken effect, the demand in the surrounding housing market has increased significantly due to the expected rise in prices. It is expected that the Tianjin Free Trade Zone will have the same effect on the housing market, and the location of the Tianjin Free Trade Zone is likely to be located on Dongjiang Island, the existing bonded area.
The company's project "Jingneng Sea and City" is located in Dongjiang Island of the Free Trade Zone, which directly benefits from the free trade zone.
The company's project in Tianjin, Jingnenghai and City, is located in the present bonded area of Dongjiang Island. The construction area of the project is 790000 square meters, the equity proportion of the company is 49%, and the equity construction area of 387100 square meters accounts for 22% of the company's land reserve at the end of 2012. The west side of the project is high-rise residential buildings, while the east side and south side are distributed with townhouse and foreign house products, including commerce, kindergarten, school, neighborhood committee and so on. The first phase of the product will be launched at the end of 2013, mainly 89-127ping two-bedroom, three-bedroom high-rise, the price has not yet been determined, next to Vanke East Coast opened on September 2012 with an average price of 10000 yuan / flat. As the project is located in Dongjiang Island, it will directly benefit from Tianjin Free Trade Zone, and there is more room for appreciation in the future.
Beijing Sihe Superior Court has filed online with 1PUBG 2
The Sihe upper house of the Beijing project is a major sales event this year, and a pre-sale certificate was obtained on July 3 this year. At present, the website of the Beijing Municipal Housing and Construction Commission shows that 177 sets have been put on record online, accounting for 1max 2 of the total 349 sets. The number of online filings increased by 67 sets compared with August 26. Most of the remaining houses are booked and qualified, but some of them are available for sale due to reasons such as failure of qualification verification or withdrawal of bookings. The project will be handed over by the end of December this year, if the delivery is smooth, this year's performance will be good. In 2012, the company's EPS was 0.37 yuan, but this year, if the Sihe upper house settlement is 30%, the EPS is 0.51 yuan, which has increased greatly, while if the settlement is 50% or 75%, the EPS will reach 0.80 yuan and 1.15 yuan.
Profit forecast and investment suggestion
The company's performance in the past two years is mainly affected by the settlement of the Sihe upper house project. According to the current number of online filings, if the Sihe upper house settles 50% this year, the EPS in the next three years will be 0.80,0.91 and 0.69 yuan, respectively. If the settlement ratio reaches 75% this year, the EPS in the next three years will be 1.15,0.57 and 0.69 yuan respectively, corresponding to a multiple of PE4 in 2013. NAV is valued at 8.15 yuan and is currently trading at a 34% discount. Give a "highly recommended" rating.
Risk Tips:
The settlement of Sihe upper house this year is lower than expected; project sales in other areas are lower than expected; real estate regulation exceeds expectations, and so on.
