Main points of the report
Event description
Tianhong Fund, a subsidiary of the company, announced that Tianhong Zenglibao (Yu'e Bao), which cooperates exclusively with BABA, has exceeded 100 billion yuan and opened more than 29 million accounts, becoming the first fund in the history of domestic funds to break through the 100 billion mark. In this regard, we have the following comments:
Event comment
Short-term: although Yu'e Bao is full of vitality, its impact on the company's profits is still very limited. Yu'e Bao is a balance value-added service jointly created by Alipay and Tianhong Fund. The funds left by Alipay users in Alipay can buy Zenglibao money Fund under Tianhong Fund. At present, the scale of Yu'e Bao has exceeded 100 billion yuan. Assuming that the fund management fees and sales service rates remain unchanged, and the net interest rate of Tianhong Fund remains unchanged, Tianhong Fund can increase its annual income by 348 million yuan and achieve a net profit of about 48 million. As a result, it contributes about 17 million yuan to the company's profits, which does not account for a high proportion of the company's profits and fails to contribute to greater performance flexibility.
Medium-and long-term: the rapid development of Yu'e Bao, especially similar business, will become an important growth pole of the company's profits. With the help of Alipay's powerful platform, Internet finance will drive the growth of Tianhong Fund. We assume that Yu'e Bao or a fund similar to Yu'e Bao can reach a trillion yuan in scale, thus contributing 3.48 billion yuan in annual income to Tianhong Fund, achieving a net profit of 480 million, and then contributing 170 million of investment income to the company. other businesses will remain unchanged based on the consensus forecast of 500 million profits in 2013, and the proportion of Yu'e Bao performance can reach 25%, showing the flexibility of performance.
The chlor-alkali industry will still hover at the bottom, and the company has the advantage of low cost and strong anti-risk ability, and is expected to enjoy a feast when the industry is booming. The company is located in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia, rich in surrounding resources. The company has the recycling industry of "coal-electricity-chlor-alkali" and "coal-electricity-ferrosilicon". It can use coal resources to generate electricity and has a strong cost advantage. We believe that in terms of industry attributes, the chlor-alkali industry as a whole will still hover at the bottom, first, there is still a lot of new capacity in the industry, and second, although the state will step up efforts to remove excess capacity in traditional industries, the implementation strength and scale remain to be seen.
The company is expected to achieve EPS0.38 2013-2014, corresponding to PE31, 27 times, do not give investment rating for the time being.