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四川美丰(000731)):国四时代临近 关注四川美丰

宏源證券 ·  Jan 6, 2014 00:00  · Researches

Key investment points: The company's 14-year prosperity, which has been the main fertilizer business, is expected to improve significantly, and the commencement of production in Mianyang Industrial Park will add new performance growth points. At the same time, the automotive urea and LNG business has gradually entered the critical point of achieving expectations. Report summary: Increased urea boom, low-cost gas supply guarantees, and the commencement of production in Mianyang Industrial Park will guarantee a significant increase in the company's performance. First, more than 60% of the company's main revenue comes from urea. After 2 years of industry boom, we expect the economy to improve upward in 2014, when production of urea was limited on the supply side and demand side increased demand due to falling export tariffs. Second, as Sinopec's only gas-head fertilizer company, the company has a great advantage in gas supply and cost leadership. Furthermore, when the company's Mianyang Industrial Park nitro compound fertilizer project etc. are put into operation, it will add another impetus to performance growth. Therefore, we believe that the company's performance will improve drastically in 2014, and that the margin of safety of stock prices will be high. Country 4 may move from story to reality, and there is room for automotive urea. According to our research on upstream companies such as Weifu, orders for current automotive urea consumption equipment, or SCR systems, began to be released in November-December '13, and it is conservatively estimated that there will be a 4-5 times increase over the same period last year. The full implementation of national four diesel vehicles has gradually moved from story to reality. Considering the increasing pressure on environmental management by local governments and the fuel-saving effects of automotive urea, we expect that demand may also gradually enter the release period. As the supplier with the most channels and production advantages in China, the company's production capacity is fully prepared. It will clearly benefit from the introduction of the National Fourth Policy in the future, and both performance and valuation are expected to improve. LNG is gradually approaching, and expectations may begin in 2014. As a subsidiary of Sinopec that earlier intervened in the construction of LNG liquefaction stations, two 1 million m2/day liquefaction stations are currently under construction. Among them, the Langzhong project is expected to be put into operation in mid-'15, and the Bazhong project is expected to be put into operation in '16. Furthermore, the company is actively exploring downstream gas stations and other fields, such as the joint venture establishment of Langzhong Shuangrui, etc., to lay the foundation for future sales. The transformation dividends will begin to be unleashed, so investors are advised to focus their attention. As the best fertilizer company under Sinopec, Meifeng continues to transform and develop. Its transformation direction is in line with national policy trends. The company has advantages that cannot be replicated with the support of major shareholders, etc., and it has a management team of energy officers. We continue to be optimistic about the company's development space in the next 2-3 years. In particular, the year 14 is expected to enter a critical point where transformation expectations are gradually realized, so investors are advised to focus on it.

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