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中原高速(600020):车流量高增长 但通行费温和增长

招商證券 ·  Dec 4, 2013 00:00  · Researches

Data tracking: According to the latest data from the Zhongyuan Expressway, the average daily traffic volume of the Zhongyuan Expressway in the third quarter was 266,000 vehicles, an increase of 14% over the previous year and a decrease of 34% over the previous month. Total toll revenue for the third quarter was 756.04 million yuan, up 7% year on year and 7% month on month. Comment: 1. The average daily traffic volume declined sharply month-on-month, while total toll revenue increased positively month-on-month, mainly due to the gradual decline in the growth rate of buses due to the free passenger bus policy on holidays in the second quarter. The year-on-year growth rate of total toll revenue was lower than the growth rate of traffic traffic, mainly due to vehicle model restructuring and increased control over overloaded vehicles in Henan Province, which led to a decline in the weighted revenue of roads and bridges under the company's jurisdiction. As a result of the continuous increase in the number of cars owned and the increase in the proportion of self-driving cars, the growth rate of first-class cars is higher than that of trucks. 2. In terms of proportion, the average daily traffic volume in the third quarter increased 14% year on year. Among them, Zheng Min's high speed accounted for 23% of the increase, the Zhengxin Yellow River Bridge accounted for 21% of the growth, and the Zheng Luo Expressway accounted for 16% of the growth. The average daily traffic volume for the third quarter fell by 34% month-on-month, with the Luoji Expressway accounting for 46% of the decline and the Zhengluo Expressway accounting for 27% of the decline. Total toll revenue for the third quarter increased 7% year on year and 7% month on month. Among them, the Zheng Yao Expressway and the Zheng Luo Expressway together accounted for more than 50% of the increase. 3. Luozhi Expressway: In the third quarter, the average daily traffic volume of the Luozhu Expressway was about 60.9 thousand vehicles, down 2% year on year and 52% month on month. Toll revenue was 154.09 million yuan, up 2% year on year and up 0.82% month on month. 4. Zhengluo Expressway: In the third quarter, the average daily traffic volume of the Zhengluo Expressway was about 116,000 vehicles, an increase of 5% over the previous year and a decrease of 25% over the previous year. Toll revenue was 376.72 million yuan, up 5% year on year and 4% month on month. 5. Traffic on the Zhengyao Expressway has steadily rebounded: In the third quarter of 2013, the average daily traffic volume of the Zhengyao Expressway was about 30,000 vehicles, an increase of 8% over the previous year and a decrease of 3% over the previous year. Toll revenue was 137.09 million yuan, up 10% year on year and 16% month on month. Investment Strategy: We expect the 2013-2014 EPS to be 0.29, 0.32, and 0.35, respectively, and the corresponding PE is 7.8, 7.1, and 6.3, respectively. The first time I paid attention to it, I gave it a “Neutral-B” investment rating. Risk warning: The macroeconomic growth rate is lower than expected, etc.

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