This report is read as follows:
The company's main product, thymus Faxin, is still facing intensified competition and price pressure, and the export of chemical drugs and polypeptide raw materials will be an important profit growth point in the future. For the first time, it was given a rating of "prudent overweight", with a target price of 16.5 yuan.
Summary:
For the first time, it was given a rating of "prudent overweight", with a target price of 16.5 yuan: the company's main product, thymus Faxin, is still facing intensified competition and price pressure, and the export of chemical drugs and polypeptide raw materials will be an important profit growth point in the future. Regardless of the export of peptide raw materials for the time being, it is estimated that the EPS of 13-15 years will be 0.37, 0.44, 0.57 yuan respectively. With reference to the listed companies of similar polypeptide drugs, the target price will be 16.5 yuan, corresponding to PE:45/37/29 times.
Thymus Faxin still faces increased competition and bidding pressure: at present, the company's main profit comes from thymus Faxin, which accounts for 91% of the company's gross profit from January to June 2013. At present, 6 enterprises have obtained approval documents for thymus Faxin injection, while 4 are still applying. In the future, the number of new participants in thymus method will increase, the competition will be fierce, and the company will drive domestic sales through international strategy. We believe that the new products of thymus method will increase in price in the future.
The export of peptide APIs will bring profit flexibility: in the next few years, a number of blockbuster peptide drug patents will expire, and the corresponding API market will achieve volume. At present, the company's API production has passed the FDA certification, and the international market space for a single heavyweight peptide API can reach 100 million US dollars. The export of APIs will bring greater profit space for the company.
Chemical products will become a medium-term profit growth point: the company plans to use over-raised funds of 133 million yuan to build a new solid preparation project, which is mainly used for the research and development of six new varieties such as biglitazone hydrochloride tablets. It is expected that the project will be completed in three years. After reaching production, it will provide an annual income of 200 million yuan and a net profit of 60 million yuan.
The follow-up product line is relatively rich, and the profit structure will be gradually diversified: at present, the company's new products include polypeptide exenazeptide, triphatide (retracted by ifebat for re-declaration), chemical drugs such as Megan Hydrochloride capsules, Pivastatin calcium tablets and Biglitazone Hydrochloride tablets, etc., the follow-up products will diversify the company's profits and break away from the new situation of over-reliance on thymus method.
Catalyst: new peptides on the market, API export market opened, new chemical drugs approved
Core risks: increased competition in the new thymus method, falling prices, and strong uncertainty in the order of polypeptide raw materials.