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登云股份(002715)新股定价报告:国内领先的汽车发动机气门生产商

上海證券 ·  Jan 14, 2014 00:00  · Researches

Investment points: The company focuses on the residential decoration industry. The company is mainly engaged in R&D, production and sales of automobile engine intake and exhaust valves. It is one of the leading enterprises in automobile engine valve production in China. It has a market share ranking third in the industry, has a production capacity of 27 million valves per year, and is a “China Top 500 Machinery - Top 50 Auto Parts” enterprise. In the short term, affected by the slowdown in the growth rate of the downstream industry, the long-term market space is still vast. From 2010 to 2013/1-6, the company's main business achieved operating income of 272 million yuan, 315 million yuan, 304 million yuan and 149 million yuan respectively. The main business was outstanding, accounting for 99.76%, 99.45%, 99.53% and 99.66% of total revenue, respectively. The three-year period company's comprehensive gross margin was 37.53%, 37.85%, 37.26%, and 35.55%, respectively, which has always been at a high level. In the face of rapid decline in domestic automobile market growth and industry adjustments, the company has maintained stable performance. In the future, the company's main market development will focus on supporting domestic OEMs and foreign after-sales markets, and there is still plenty of room for growth. The company's competitive advantage in the industry is obvious. The company's competitive advantages include: 1) technical advantages; 2) talent and management advantages; 3) market advantages. The valuation range within 6 months of listing was 10.98-13.17 yuan, and we think it is reasonable to give the company a price-earnings ratio of 26 times its earnings per share for 13 years. The reasonable valuation range for a company with this price-earnings ratio as the center and a positive and negative range of 20% is 10.98-13.17 yuan, compared to the static price-earnings ratio in 2012 (dilution after issuance) of 25.60-30.71 times. The recommended inquiry range is 8.79-10.55 yuan, since the IPO price is determined by project capital requirements, IPO costs, and number of newly issued shares. Assuming that the company issues 23 million new shares, the total share capital of the company is 92 million shares, and the amount of capital raised by the company is 222 million yuan. Based on this, it is estimated that the issue price is 9.67 yuan. Based on this, the discount rate is estimated to be 19.93%. Assuming that 9.67 yuan is used as the inquiry center, considering the 20% inquiry range, we recommend setting an inquiry range of 8.79-10.55 yuan.

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