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远东发展(00035.HK):未来数年将继续增长

Far East Development (00035.HK): will continue to grow in the next few years

輝立證券(香港) ·  Jun 29, 2017 00:00  · Researches

Summary of investment

The development projects and receipts in London and Manchester are very powerful, especially taking advantage of the low-cost development projects in the post-modern downturn in the United Kingdom, in terms of geography and business, the collection of services is diversified, with operations spanning South Asia, Australia, and the United Kingdom.

There is a large amount of regular income, which is an important source of total income, which is further increased by real estate development projects with high development value.

General situation of the company

The annual award in 2017: in 2017, the development of the economy has achieved outstanding success. Income rose by 25.3% to HK $5.05 billion. Gross profit increased only slightly, with an increase of only about 16.6% to 1.90 billion Hong Kong dollars, mainly due to a slight decline in gross profit margin caused by the combination of sales. The profit profit policy recorded a significant increase of about 495% to HK $1.133 billion, partly due to the fact that the collection sale was originally classified as an investment property industry, and the difference between the net value and the net value has been recognized as a gain from the sale of investment property. as a result, profits have increased. In 2017, the overall growth of property sales was strong, and the total cumulative sales this year increased by 42.6%, from HK $7.517 billion in 2016 to HK $107.23 in 2017. In addition, in 2017, the aggregate earned HK $0.51 per share and declared a dividend of HK $0.185 per share, an increase of 41.7 per cent and 15.4 per cent respectively over 2016.

The expenditure on property development services will increase further in the coming years: in 2017, most of the total income from property development services increased, from 1.971 billion Hong Kong dollars in 2016 to 2.937 billion Hong Kong dollars in 2017, an increase of 49.0 percent. The proportion of employment in income also increased from 49.3% in 2016 to 58.7% in 2017. The increase in property development revenue in 2017 was mainly caused by the increase in Australian property sales, which rose 141.8% during the period, from HK $713 million in 2016 to HK $1.724 billion in 2017. The company completed three projects in 2017, namely the Upper West Side (Phase IV) Manhattan in Mexico, Shangyi in Hong Kong and the King's Court in Shanghai.

We estimate that the part of real estate development that we have developed will continue to be the main source of growth in the future, for the following reasons:

There are a large number of developing projects, approved projects have extremely high development value and are located in international cities with great demand for the property industry.

The total expected sales of the development items in the collection amount to 10.723 billion Hong Kong dollars, which is a guarantee for the income and growth in the coming years.

More than 20 property development projects are under development or planning, while most of them have not yet been launched for sale

Pooling actively takes advantage of certain areas or countries that are currently under valuation to obtain development projects. For example, Marketplace takes advantage of previously low valuations in the UK, such as Northern Gateway in Manchester.

Win more projects in the UK: TDC has begun to establish its strategic status in the UK since 2014, with the annual collection of two projects located in the Canary Wharf of the London financial district. After the referendum in the United Kingdom, the valuation of the United Kingdom has been on the low side for a long time, so the market has accelerated its development in the United Kingdom. at present, apart from the development project in London, it has also grown to Manchester, the second largest city in Britain.

I have high expectations for the development of the Alpha Square, INC. project in London, which is located in Canary Wharf, the financial centre of London, and all the major financial institutions in the world have set up offices near Canary Wharf. As a result, the target audience of Alpha Square, INC. is expected to criticize the staff of financial institutions, most of whom are high-income people and have a high level of motivation. Alpha Square, INC. expects to meet strong demand and become one of the best developing property development projects in Taiwan.

In addition to the development projects in London, Marketplace also holds development projects in Manchester, namely Angel Meadowat NOMA and Northern Gateway, which will provide more than 750and 10000 new homes respectively in the next decade, contributing to the prospects and sustainability of the development of the property market.

Hotel service start-up: hotel operating revenue increased by 1.9% in 2017, mainly due to the performance of Hong Kong hotels with a revenue of about 50%. Overall, the performance of hotels around the world has improved in terms of average revenue per room and occupancy rate, resulting in an increase in revenue from hotel services.

Hotel service worldwide: the hotel currently has 22 hotels, more than 6743 rooms in 5 different countries and regions, and more than 3000 rooms in Hong Kong, accounting for about 50% of the hotel's income.

TDC is planning to increase the number of hotels and rooms in its hotel service within six years, and is expected to increase by about 3489 guestrooms. The newly built hotels are mainly located overseas. Special attention has been paid to hotel services in Britain and Australia, where more than 2900 additional rooms have been built. In particular, the market is developing a new hotel in Brisbane, which is located in the heart of Brisbane, adjacent to a new airport, which is expected to attract a large number of guests.

The rapid rise in real estate in the past decade has led to a high revaluation of the hotel property industry. however, due to the restrictions of the accounting norms, the revaluation income can not be realized in the operating report. In recent years, Shanghai Development has been examining the sale of its non-core hotels and the number of non-core hotels that have been sold in order to increase its value.

Valuation and valuation

Our valuation model shows an eye value of HK $5.30: the development of Hong Kong recorded a measurable increase in 2017. Take advantage of the current low valuation of the British army to enter the British market. In addition, another large-scale hotel service has already started, and 3500 rooms will be completed in the next six years. It is expected that the service of the hotel will continue to improve. Therefore, our target for developing HK$5.30 is equivalent to the price-to-earnings ratio and price-to-book ratio of 7.85 times and 0.87 times, which is equal to the "entry" level. (as of 27 June)

Downlink (1): real estate and hotel services are geographically and geographically oriented

(2): the nationalization of the market makes it face to the relatively high level of foreign trade.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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