Summary:
During the 12th five-year Plan period, China's apparent natural gas consumption grew at an average annual rate of 12.4%, domestic production grew at an average annual rate of 7.2%, and the self-sufficiency of natural gas was much lower than the total demand. It is estimated that during the 13th five-year Plan period, China's natural gas production will grow at an average annual rate of 8.9%, and the apparent consumption of natural gas will grow at a considerable rate. The company's natural gas sales business is mainly aimed at Shanghai, which is a front-line area of China's economic development, and the demand for natural gas continues to exceed the national average. In recent years, the company's natural gas sales revenue has increased significantly, mainly due to the region where it is located. Revenue accounted for 37% of the company's total revenue in 2016, and the share is expected to increase further.
In recent years, the prosperity of China's shipbuilding industry has shown an obvious downward trend, and the three major indicators of shipbuilding completion, new ship orders and hand-held ship orders have declined year after year. The company actively adjusts its business structure, strengthens the development of high-tech and high value-added ships such as green, energy-saving and environmental protection new ship types, large gas ships and super large container ships, and acquires marine defense equipment assets with high gross profit margin, which will become one of the company's core businesses in the future. In addition, the company actively develops the business of natural gas ship construction, and its gross profit margin has improved significantly, and it is expected to further increase in the future.
Profit forecast: it is predicted that the company's revenue will increase by 10%, 10% and 10% respectively from 2017 to 2019, reaching 1.766 billion yuan, 1.942 billion yuan and 2.137 billion yuan respectively, and the net profit will reach 226 million yuan, 261 million yuan and 305 million yuan respectively, with a growth rate of 59%, 15% and 16% respectively.
Risk tips: 1) lower-than-expected risk of asset integration on performance improvement; 2) lower-than-expected risk of structural adjustment of shipbuilding business.