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益盛药业(002566):中药、人参、蜂蜜三轮驱动

光大證券 ·  Dec 12, 2013 00:00  · Researches

The company will develop three series in the future: proprietary Chinese medicines, ginseng, and honey, which integrates R&D, production and sales. It is located in Ji'an City, Jilin, which is rich in medicinal herbs. The three series of products to be developed in the future include proprietary Chinese medicines, ginseng, and honey. Proprietary Chinese medicines are the company's main products at present, including Shengmai Injection, Qingkailing Injection, Zhenyuan Capsules, Xinyue Capsules, and Gui Fudihuang Capsules. Steady growth in pharmaceuticals. Judging from injections, Qingkailing injections are expected to increase by 2% throughout the year, and Shengmai injections are expected to be basically the same as last year. As production capacity increases through the new GMP certification, we expect injection performance to gradually recover in the future. Looking at capsules, Zhenyuan capsules are expected to grow by 20% throughout the year, Xinyue capsules are expected to grow by 56% throughout the year and are expected to continue to grow at a high rate. Guifudi Yellow capsules are expected to grow by about 10% throughout the year. Building the entire ginseng industry chain The company is focusing on building the entire ginseng cultivation, processing, and sales industry chain. This year, the company produced new ginseng for the first time without forest land. According to estimates, the profits that ginseng can contribute in 2013, 2014, and 2015 were 4.08 million, 22.32 million, and 5.58 million yuan, respectively. The layout of the bee industry Big Health Bee Industry is the company's third major strategic business. Changbai Mountain bee products do not contain agricultural residues or heavy metals, and are in line with the concept of green and natural health. The company's future plans for the bee industry have two parts. One is to use honey as an auxiliary ingredient or use ginseng, which can guarantee the quality of pharmaceuticals and ginseng; the second is to promote honey-like health products. The company will launch major health products such as honey through supermarkets and stores on the channel. Honey products now generate revenue of about 13 million to 14 million, and may become a new focus for the company in the future. Profit forecast and valuation. The company has an inventory of more than 400 tons of ginseng. According to current price estimates, the value is about 300 million yuan. Currently, the company's total market value is 5.734 billion yuan. Excluding the inventory revaluation portion, the market value is about 5.434 billion yuan. According to our forecast, the company's earnings per share for 13-15 years were 0.53 yuan, 0.65 yuan, and 0.74 yuan respectively, giving it a target price of 26.00 yuan, corresponding to 40 times PE in 2014, giving it a “neutral” investment rating. Risk analysis: Drug prices cut, ginseng production falls short of expectations

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