share_log

江铃B(200550):商用车业务稳步增长SUV注入新增动力

國元(香港) ·  Dec 23, 2013 00:00  · Researches

Key investment points: Sales volume increased sharply in the fourth quarter, and the annual sales volume is guaranteed: in the 1st to 3rd quarter of 2013, the company achieved operating income of 14.8 billion yuan, an increase of 16.1% over the previous year; realized net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.26 billion yuan, an increase of 7% over the previous year; and earnings per share were 1.46 yuan. As of November, the company's cumulative sales volume increased 16.7% to 210,000 units, with a year-on-year increase of 46.5% to 23,000 units in November. By model, the Quanshun series, JMC light truck system, and pickup truck (including SUV) series increased by 21%, 17.1%, and 12.6% respectively from January to November. We expect the company's annual automobile sales volume to reach 230,000 units, an increase of 15% over the previous year. The past performance is excellent, and the core business is developing steadily: Judging from the company's past performance, gross profit margin, net interest rate, and return on capital are all at a high and stable level in the industry. At the same time, the company's historical dividend rate is high, and the average dividend distribution ratio from 2002 to 2012 was as high as 35.2%, with a good dividend record. Judging from the company's business, the core business of light passenger cars and light pickup trucks is developing steadily. In particular, light passenger cars, represented by Quanshun, have a very good reputation within the industry, are positioned in the high-end market, and will grow steadily in the future. Breaking through the bottleneck in production capacity, Ford's new models are expected to bring new growth impetus: the company's new plant, Xiaolan base, has been gradually put into operation, and production capacity is on the rise. Currently, the production capacity of the old factory area is about 160,000 to 180,000 vehicles (Quanshun has moved to the Xiaolan base). In addition to the Xiaolan base's production capacity of up to 300,000 vehicles, the company has successfully solved the production capacity bottleneck problem. Judging from the new products, the new Yusheng will bring growth impetus to the SUV business. It can not only increase its share in the original specialty market, but it is also expected to achieve a certain breakthrough in the private consumer market. Furthermore, the company will introduce a mid-size SUV product from Ford, the J08, which is expected to start production in the first half of 2015. The related competitors are Highlander, Shengda, and Copac. Competition is not particularly intense, yet the company's products have more internal space and have certain advantages. Highly recommended, with a target price of HK$33.56: Overall, Quanshun products are expected to maintain a steady pace of development driven by urban logistics. The new Yusheng will bring growth impetus to the SUV business, and performance is expected to grow steadily in 2014. In 2015, the new heavyweight SUVs J08 and Yusheng N330 will be gradually launched, leading to a significant increase in performance during that year. Judging from valuation, the average valuation level of the industry in 2014 was 10.7 times. Considering the company's shareholder background, stable past performance, and high dividend ratio, the company was given a valuation level of 11 times that of 2014, which is equivalent to the target price of 33.56, with room for 22.3% increase from the current price.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.
    Write a comment