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小南国(3666.HK):尚未完全走出低谷 期待明年业绩反弹

國元(香港) ·  Dec 29, 2013 00:00  · Researches

High-end restaurants have not yet broken out of their trough, and it is difficult for same-store growth to grow significantly in the short term: due to the suppression of the country's three public consumption policies, after nearly a year of adjustments, the high-end catering industry still hasn't completely broken out of the trough. In the first 10 months of this year, the revenue of catering enterprises above the limit fell 1.7% year on year. The company's “Xiaonanguo” brand positioning is a major part of the company's revenue. The company's total same-store growth fell 8.7% in the first half of the year, and there was still no significant improvement in the second half of the year. It is expected that the total annual same-store growth will drop by about 8%, and the company's performance will be greatly adversely affected. The multi-brand strategy reflects differentiation, and the share of “South Pavilion” will continue to rise in the future: We believe that brand differentiation is mainly reflected in whether the company operates under a single brand or multiple brands, and that it will be relatively easy and more successful to operate in a multi-brand manner from high-end to low-end. The company's multi-brand strategy is based on the “Little South” high-end brand to develop the casual restaurant brand “Nan Xiao Guan”, which is in line with the multi-brand development business model. Currently, the company's multi-brand strategy is quite successful, and the number of “South Gate” stores has grown dramatically. The company plans to open 10 and 15 “South Pavilion” in 2014 and 2015 respectively. We expect that by 2015, the company's “South Pavilion” revenue share will increase to 20%, increasing its contribution to the company's overall performance. The recommended rating was given, and the target price was HK$1.57: Influenced by national policies, the company's negative growth in the same store in 2013 will have a negative impact on this year's performance. It is expected that the company's 2013 performance will decline to a certain extent. In 2014, the company's “Xiaonanguo” same-store growth will recover to a certain extent. Coupled with the rapid growth of the “Nan Xiao Guan” brand, the company's profit will rebound. Referring to the company's history and valuation performance in the same industry, we gave the company 18 times PE in 2014, equivalent to the target price of HK$1.57, a potential increase of 9.8% from the current price, giving it a recommended rating.

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