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凤凰股份(600716)跟踪研究报告:引入中央商场 利好文化地产协同效应

浙商證券 ·  Jan 14, 2014 00:00  · Researches

Announcement: On the evening of January 13, the company disclosed the announcement that it had signed a strategic partnership framework agreement with Nanjing Central Shopping Mall (Group) Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “Central Mall”). Comment: Further benefit to cultural real estate business model synergy effects We believe that the company signed a strategic partnership framework agreement with the central shopping mall and formed a strategic partnership, which will help the residential platform (residential real estate) - commercial platform (cultural mall) - business platform (central shopping mall) to form complementary synergy effects, and can maximize the value of the project. We believe that the introduction of central shopping malls can establish an investment promotion platform and business platform for cultural malls, use the commercial brand advantages and business management experience of central shopping malls, so that the commercial value of cultural malls can be further enhanced, bring more practical supporting effects to the surrounding residential real estate sector, and increase the relative premium of residential real estate and the rapid elimination of sales. According to preliminary estimates, the company's commercial housing sales payback was about 1.15 billion yuan from January to September (the actual commercial housing sales contract amount would be higher), up 11.3% from the same period in 2012; of these, 0.15 billion yuan, 0.59 billion yuan, and 410 million yuan were respectively in the first quarter, the second quarter, and the third quarter. We expect the company's annual commercial housing sales amount to be more than 2 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of more than 35%. Maintaining the “increase in holdings” rating, we expect the company's 2013-2015 EPS to be 0.45 yuan, 0.57 yuan, and 0.70 yuan, respectively. The PE corresponding to the current stock price is 15.8 times, 12.7 times, and 10.2 times, respectively. We maintain the company's “gain” rating based on the following considerations: (1) we expect sales to be 2 billion or more, and sales are flexible; (2) we are still optimistic about the company's cultural real estate model, waiting for further verification and expansion of related projects to achieve potential growth; (3) although the pension real estate business being explored by the company needs to be further implemented, the pension real estate business has potential for development; (4) as a provincial state-owned enterprise, we are expected to benefit from future state-owned enterprise reforms.

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