Main points of the report
Event description
Pegasus International fundamentals follow up and update, we sort out the company's fundamentals and 14 years of investment logic as follows:
Event comment
The high performance growth in the first three quarters of 13 years is the statistical year-on-year effect of the existing business adjustment. In terms of net profit margin and revenue growth alone, revenue grew by 150% in the first three quarters of 13 years, while the net interest rate was 0.54%. Revenue grew by 46% and 0.92% in the first three quarters of 12 years. Therefore, the business adjustment has resulted in a year-on-year high growth of nearly 50% in the first three quarters. We expect the growth rate of Q4 company to decline in a single quarter in 13 years, and maintain a performance growth rate of 30-35% for the whole year.
Identify the new fulcrum, transform bulk transactions to support 13 years of explosive revenue growth, 14 years or continuation. Since the company began to intervene in re-export copper and aluminum transactions in the second half of 12 years, the company's revenue has begun to grow explosively, with a compound growth rate of more than 150% in a single quarter. We believe that the company's revenue growth has not been less than 100% since 2010, and the company is likely to maintain the growth rate in bulk transactions in 2014, especially the heavily regulated entrepot trade qualification may continue to give the company more service demand opportunities in 14 years.
The new profit model was adjusted in 13 years, the space for the decline of net interest rate in 14 years was limited, and the income elasticity determined the performance elasticity in 14 years. As of 2013, Q3's net profit margin had fallen to 0.54%, basically unchanged from the annual level of 0.56% in 2012. We expect that the current business model is in place and that there is limited room for net profit margins to continue to decline significantly throughout the year, so revenue growth can determine performance flexibility to some extent.
The new profit model has high elastic potential, but the certainty is low, and the contribution of the new project performance is unknown, so the "cautious recommendation" is maintained. We believe that although the growth rate of the company's performance in the past two years is occasionally large, half of the growth in 12 years comes from 11 years of adjustment, and there is also a year-on-year effect caused by business restructuring in 13 years. At present, the company's business adjustment fundamentals have been completed, and we expect that as long as income elasticity continues to be maintained in 14 years, the potential for performance elasticity is huge. However, taken into account, the uncertainty of income elasticity is very high, and its elasticity is neither the integration of a certain market, nor the newly increased supply of a certain part of the market, so it is very difficult to predict. From 2013 to 15, the EPS is expected to be 0.26,0.29 and 0.38 yuan respectively. Due to the extremely high uncertainty, we maintain the rating "cautious recommendation".