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粤传媒(002181)调研纪要:加速转型 精“彩”无限

廣證恆生 ·  Jan 20, 2014 00:00  · Researches

We have different views with the market: Guangdong media accelerated the pace of transformation in 2014, and we think we can focus on three highlights in 2014: (1) the mobile lottery platform was launched a year later, and users were directly connected to the “Soccer News” with 1 million readers. Thanks to the World Cup feast, there is huge room for business scale development; (2) Champs-Elly is expected to successfully join forces in 2014, connect with Guangdong media advertisers' resources, improve order absorption capacity, and strong performance. According to performance commitments, EPS increased by 0.08 yuan and 0.1 yuan respectively; (3) after 2 months, the game license was obtained, and the game expansion process was accelerated. Follow up game projects. We believe that the Guangdong media have already entered an advanced stage in arranging new media. In 2014, as long as the transformation process meets expectations, there will be a major breakthrough in performance contribution. At present, the project has not yet entered the operation stage, so we continue to give the company a “careful recommendation” rating, so stay tuned for further in-depth reports. Investment points: Mobile lottery purchases have entered the testing period, and the World Cup sports lottery feast has arrived. The company's Yuncai App has entered the follow-up testing stage and is expected to be officially launched by the end of the first quarter. The company is expected to use the “Soccer News”'s accurate advertising and professional tournament editing qualifications to quickly deploy a mobile sports lottery purchasing platform: in 2013, sports lottery ticket sales were 132.8 billion yuan, an increase of 20% over the previous year. Driven by the 2014 World Cup, the growth rate of sports lottery sales is expected to exceed 30%. At the same time, the share of online lottery purchases has also increased rapidly. In 2013, the share of sports lottery on the Internet was only 7%. The Internet penetration rate is expected to be 15% in 2015, and the market space will reach 30 billion yuan. Relying on the huge audience of “Soccer News”, the lottery buyers are perfectly matched. The company's “Soccer News” has a weekly circulation of 5.4 million copies, making it the sports newspaper with the largest circulation and the most authoritative coverage in China; among them, the soccer lottery special “Soccer Winner” has a circulation of more than 1 million copies per issue, and it is also the soccer lottery magazine with the highest circulation in China. Using the existing soccer fan base, the company can easily connect readers with lottery buyers, and the customer base is huge. Assuming that 20% of the readers successfully connect, buy lottery tickets for 10 yuan a week, and the average business scale reaches 100 million yuan a year, the business prospects are promising. The merger and acquisition of Champs Elysées begins a new journey of integrating LED advertising. The company acquired Shanghai Champs-Elysées in October and officially entered the LED outdoor advertising market. Currently, the concentration of the LED advertising market is not high, and investment factors and brand resources can all be developed and shared in multiple ways. It has economies of scale, and the integration trend is very strong. Currently, the market share of Champs Elysées is about 15%, and the network is widely distributed. With its position as the earliest pioneer, it has the ability to integrate the market. According to the gamble agreement at the time of mergers and acquisitions, Champs Elysées's profit for the next three years will not be less than 56.83 million yuan, 68.7 million yuan, and 81.56 million yuan, with an average growth rate of 20%. Considering the integration of the resources of the two companies after the merger and acquisition and the incentive mechanism for implementation, we believe that there is a high possibility that the performance will be completed. The game license was obtained in 2 months, and the transformation accelerated. The company announced on the 15th that it has obtained the “Internet Culture Business License”, which means that the company has officially entered the gaming field. We believe that Guangzhou Tour Company has three major advantages in choosing page game distribution as a game entry point: (1) publisher risk is low, profits are stable, and brand effects accumulate rapidly; (2) the life cycle of page games is not low, and subsequent promotion and operation costs are high; (3) the company has online, offline, and outdoor multimedia channels, with obvious promotion advantages. In the context of page game division being squeezed by oligarchs, as Alibaba's high-profile entry will bring about a new “revolution” in division, Guangzhou Tour, as a new intervention, is expected to gain a place in the midst of turmoil, and is worth paying attention to in the later stages. When big data is laid out and e-commerce projects are incubated. “Home Delivery” opens up online and offline platforms, uses the Guangzhou Daily delivery site to achieve efficient last-mile delivery services, and creates the “Guangzhou No.1 Butler” brand. Compared to popular e-commerce businesses in the market, the company's “home delivery” has room for growth in market segments: (1) The target group of the mall is the elderly and housewives, etc., who are both the main subscribers of Guangzhou Daily and the main purchasers of household products, to achieve clear positioning; (2) this target group is not an online shopping fan, but they have a habit of reading newspapers, and demand for paper orders or telephone orders is very high; (3) Daily necessities or household goods generally weigh more, and the elderly or housewives are very strenuous in purchasing on the ground, “Home Delivery.” Kilometer delivery makes it easy to achieve point-to-point delivery, Solve customer concerns. We believe that “Home Delivery”, a local segmented shopping mall, has strong competitive advantages and huge potential customers, and has great potential for development. Profit forecast and valuation: Assuming that Guangdong Media successfully completed the Champs-Elysées merger and acquisition in 2014 and began merging in the second half of the year, considering that the share capital increased to 725 million shares, the acquisition of Champs-Elysées and Guangdong Media would increase EPS by 0.08 yuan and 0.1 yuan respectively in 14-15. We expect the company to prepare for the EPS exam in 13-15 to be 0.44, 0.51, and 0.57 yuan, respectively, corresponding to 24, 20, and 18 times PE. The target price is 14.3 yuan. Give it a “carefully recommended” rating. Risk warning: The performance of the subject matter of the merger and acquisition did not meet expectations, and subsequent integration work was poor; the progress of the new media business fell short of expectations.

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