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登云股份(002715)新股定价报告:汽车发动机气门行业龙头

東方證券 ·  Jan 13, 2014 00:00  · Researches

The recommended inquiry range is 11.2 to 13 yuan. It is estimated that the company's fully diluted EPS after issuance in 2013, 14, and 15 will be 0.46 yuan, 0.62 yuan, and 0.75 yuan (based on the total share capital estimate after the IPO is issued). Based on the valuation situation of companies related to the contract industry, considering the uncertainty faced by the company in the future high growth and profitability of the company's international supporting business, we believe that the reasonable inquiry range is between 11.2 and 13 yuan, corresponding to a price-earnings ratio of 18 to 21 times that of 2014. The company is a leading enterprise in the automotive engine valve industry. The company's main products are engine intake and exhaust valves, which are specifically divided into two categories: gasoline engine valves and diesel engine valves. The valve products produced cover all kinds of vehicles such as heavy vehicles, light trucks, large buses, microcars, cars, and hybrid cars. The company actively explores domestic gasoline engines and foreign diesel engine supporting customers, and has become a leading enterprise in the domestic engine valve industry. The industry is expanding steadily, and the company's manufacturing process is leading. The automobile valve market is steadily expanding. We estimate that the valve market will have a capacity of about 700 million valves in 2015, an increase of more than 10% over the present. The company has superior technology in the field of automotive valves, good cost control, and the ability to ensure that product performance reaches the leading level in the industry. Recently, it has passed the supply qualification certification for some models of Caterpillar diesel engine valves, has begun supplying products, and is gradually entering the automotive valve market for middle and high-end joint ventures in China. The share of business in the ancillary market is expected to increase. Business volume in the international ancillary market will grow rapidly in the next two years. The main incremental contribution comes from Caterpillar. The company has begun to gradually supply batches to Caterpillar's Perkins plant in Wuxi and the Perkins plant in the UK. The growth of international mainframe support services will effectively withstand the adverse effects of the domestic heavy truck industry continuing to hover at a low level. The company's new production capacity has a high level of automation, variable production costs per unit have moved down healthily, and the unit price of valves required by Caterpillar is high. We anticipate rapid growth in revenue and gross profit levels for engine diesel in 2014/15. The capital raised is mainly invested in capacity expansion and technology upgrading projects. (1) A technological transformation project with an annual output of 20 million automobile engine valves and an additional production capacity of 20 million automobile engine valves. After full production, the production capacity of the company is expected to exceed 45 million. (2) Provincial technology center innovation capacity building technology transformation projects will play a positive role in the company's medium- to long-term development. The main risk. (1) Sales in the automobile industry fell beyond expectations; (2) RMB exchange rate risk; (3) risk of raw material price fluctuations; (4) risk of insufficient utilization of additional production capacity. (The share capital and diluted earnings per share predicted in the current report are based on the number of shares to be issued by the company announced by the company, so there may be a risk of differences due to differences in the actual number of shares issued by the company.)

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