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登云股份(002715):突破中高端市场的气门制造专家

安信證券 ·  Jan 13, 2014 03:00  · Researches

A leading enterprise in the field of engine valve manufacturing: The company has a production capacity of 27 million valves, and its market share is second only to Jinan Ward and Mahle Sanhuan, ranking third in the domestic industry, mainly supporting OEMs such as automobile engines and construction machinery engines. The company sells its products to China, the United States, Italy, the United Kingdom, Japan, Brazil, the Middle East and Southeast Asia. The main customers include Cummins, Deutz, Yuchai, Weichai, Xichai, Caterpillar, Changan Mazda, Chongqing Changan, Guangzhou Automobile, JAC, Chery, Haima, etc. Business breakthroughs in the middle and high-end markets are conducive to increasing the company's profits: diesel engine valves accounted for more than 60% of the company's previous revenue, and gasoline engine valve business accounted for a relatively small share of revenue. With the commencement of supply to the passenger car joint venture Changan Mazda in 2013, the company's original revenue structure and profitability of the gasoline engine valve business will improve. In 2013, it began supplying international construction machinery giant Caterpillar, marking an official entry into the high-end construction machinery support field, and the gross margin of the diesel engine valve business will also increase. The fund-raising project will enhance the company's competitiveness: the company now plans to issue 23 million shares, mainly for 20 million automobile engine valve technology transformation projects and provincial technology center technology transformation projects. Among them, the valve production capacity expansion project has a total investment of 210.38 million yuan, which will increase product market share and reduce costs after completion; the total investment of the technology center renovation project is 12 million yuan, which will enhance the company's technological research and development capabilities after completion. Investment advice: The recommended inquiry range is 8.70-11.60 yuan. We expect the company's revenue from 2013 to 2015 to be 320 million yuan, 378 million yuan and 431 million yuan respectively, with growth rates of 4.7%, 18.0% and 14.0%, respectively, and net profit of 44 million yuan, 54 million yuan and 72 million yuan respectively, with growth rates of 11.7%, 21.8% and 33.4% respectively. EPS is 0.48 yuan, 0.58 yuan, and 0.78 yuan, respectively. If the company was given 15-20 times PE in 2014, the reasonable inquiry range per share was 8.70-11.60 yuan. The target listing price is 9.86-11.60 yuan, which is 17-20 times that of PE in 2012. Risk warning: risk of cyclical fluctuations in the automobile industry; risk of rising share of new energy vehicles.

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