share_log

粤传媒(002181)深度报告:内外兼修 华丽转型

廣證恆生 ·  Jan 22, 2014 00:00  · Researches

We have different views from the market: Guangdong media accelerated the pace of transformation in 2014. We think we can focus on three highlights: (1) the traditional main business penetrated the market segment, and 100 community newspaper outlets entered a period of rapid construction; (2) a mobile lottery platform was launched a year later, with users directly connecting with 1 million readers of the “Soccer News”. Thanks to the World Cup feast, there is huge room for business scale development; (3) the Champs-Elysées is expected to succeed in 2014. Connect with Guangdong media advertiser resources, improve order digestion capacity, and target Yuanqiang, respectively, according to the 15-year performance commitment and 0.1 yuan; We think 2014 was a year of transformation for media in Guangdong, and there was a lot of layout work in the old and new media businesses. Although the relevant business did not contribute much to profit within 1-2 years, as long as the transformation process meets expectations, it is only a matter of time before the company establishes a comprehensive media group integrating distribution, print advertising, and new media. We are optimistic about the company's transformation and upgrading layout. We believe that the doubling of local advertising revenue brought about by the “Community Newspaper”'s online development and the vertical sports lottery platform created by the “Soccer” team all have potential for explosive growth in the future. Therefore, the company's rating was raised to “Highly Recommended”. Key investment points: The traditional transformation, the community newspaper model is expected to usher in the second spring of print media. The company's original community newspaper model creates an exclusive community newspaper for the local community that is different from portals and major newspapers. The advertising positioning is clear, and customers target local advertisers. In 2013, 12 companies were established, and the plan is to build 100 companies for the next three years. The average profit is estimated at 1 million yuan per share. After the business matures, the profit contribution is expected to exceed 100 million yuan, accounting for 1/4 of the current net profit. Mobile lottery purchases have entered the testing period, and the World Cup sports lottery feast has arrived. The company's Yuncai App has entered the follow-up testing stage and is expected to be officially launched by the end of the first quarter. The company is expected to use the “Soccer News”'s accurate advertising and professional tournament editing qualifications to quickly deploy a mobile sports lottery purchasing platform: in 2013, sports lottery ticket sales were 132.8 billion yuan, an increase of 20% over the previous year. Driven by the 2014 World Cup, the growth rate of sports lottery sales is expected to exceed 30%. At the same time, the share of online lottery purchases has also increased rapidly. In 2013, the share of sports lottery on the Internet was only 7%. The Internet penetration rate is expected to be 15% in 2015, and the market space will reach 30 billion yuan. Relying on the huge audience of “Soccer News”, the lottery buyers are perfectly matched. The company's “Soccer News” has a weekly circulation of 5.4 million copies, making it the sports newspaper with the largest circulation and the most authoritative coverage in China; among them, the soccer lottery special “Soccer Winner” has a circulation of more than 1 million copies per issue, and it is also the soccer lottery magazine with the highest circulation in China. Using the existing soccer fan base, the company can easily connect readers with lottery buyers, and the customer base is huge. Assuming that 20% of readers successfully connect, buy lottery tickets for 10 yuan a week, an average annual business scale of 100 million yuan, and acquire Champs-Elysées, embark on a new journey of integrating LED advertising. The company acquired Shanghai Champs-Elysées in October and officially entered the LED outdoor advertising market. Currently, the concentration of the LED advertising market is not high, and investment factors and brand resources can all be developed and shared in multiple ways. It has economies of scale, and the integration trend is very strong. Currently, the market share of Champs Elysées is about 15%, and the network is widely distributed. With its position as the earliest pioneer, it has the ability to integrate the market. According to the gamble agreement at the time of mergers and acquisitions, Champs Elysées's profit for the next three years will not be less than 56.83 million yuan, 68.7 million yuan, and 81.56 million yuan, with an average growth rate of 20%. Considering the integration of the resources of the two companies after the merger and acquisition and the incentive mechanism for implementation, we believe that there is a high possibility that the performance will be completed. Profit forecast and valuation: Assuming that Guangdong Media successfully completed the Champs-Elysées merger and acquisition in 2014 and began merging in the second half of the year, considering that the share capital increased to 725 million shares, the acquisition of Champs-Elysées and Guangdong Media would increase EPS by 0.08 yuan and 0.1 yuan respectively in 14-15. We expect the company to prepare for the EPS exam in 13-15 to be 0.44, 0.51, and 0.57 yuan, respectively, corresponding to 24, 20, and 18 times PE. The target price is 20.4 yuan. Give it a “Highly Recommended” rating. Risk warning: The performance of the M&A target did not meet expectations, and subsequent integration work was poor; community newspaper construction work fell short of expectations, local advertising revenue declined sharply; progress in the new media business fell short of expectations, etc.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.
    Write a comment