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金亚科技(300028)深度研究:转型电视游戏蓝海 百亿市值不是梦

申銀萬國 ·  Mar 5, 2014 00:00  · Researches

Key investment points: Video games are the next blue ocean market in the game industry. 1) Looking at the global market, home console games have always been the game format that accounts for the largest share of volume; judging from historical performance, the cumulative sales volume of the Little Overlord Learning Machine in the 90s was 20 million units, which is basically the same as the sales volume of Nintendo FC Red and White consoles in Japan during the same period (19.35 million units). The Chinese market's demand for home video game consoles in the 90s was already second only to North America, on par with Japan. Considering hardware and game content payments, the potential market size may reach more than 39 billion yuan, which is expected to become the next blue ocean market; 2) Considering the uniqueness of the Chinese market, console games represented by Xbox may occupy the high-end market. Smart TV/set-top boxes are expected to become the main form of carrying for future video games, and online games will become the main mode of monetization. Jinya Technology is actively transforming its strategy into the video game industry. 1) The company is mainly engaged in the production and sales of set-top box equipment, and the downstream is a cable TV operator; due to factors such as the industry development cycle, the company's revenue and performance growth rate has been relatively slow in recent years. In this context, the company has established a strategic goal of “de-broadcasting and broadcasting” and has launched a variety of OTT products; 2) Through cooperation with Perfect World, the company pioneered the OTT product form of video+video games, and intervened in the home video game market. 3) The first product achieved a target volume of 330,000 units in 7 days; 3) The company established a “content+platform+strategic terminal” direction of development, and Continuously improving the layout of the industrial chain through acquisitions, strategic cooperation, or establishment of subsidiaries, the potential for future video game business development is worth looking forward to. The first coverage gives an increase in holdings rating. 1) We believe that the company's relatively poor performance in '13 was mainly due to bad debts, impairment of goodwill, and losses from merger and acquisition projects. In the future, with the elimination of the above factors and the beginning of large-scale sales of video game set-top box products, we expect the company's 14/15/16 EPS to be 0.17/0.24/0.28, respectively, and the company's current stock price corresponds to 109/78/64 times PE during the same period; 2) Although the current valuation is relatively high, considering the large market capacity of the video game industry and the high market capitalization ceiling of leading companies (it is conservatively estimated that the leading market value in the video game industry is expected to reach more than 20 billion yuan), we will give the company an “increase” rating for the first time.

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