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博雅互动(434.HK)调研简报:成功转型布局移动端

國元(香港) ·  Mar 3, 2014 00:00  · Researches

1. What distribution platforms will the company focus on in 2014: This year, the company will focus on pre-installing mobile phones from the factory on its own channels, and secondly, using mobile phone operator platforms. The company will maintain a normal investment in online marketing. Now that the online market has changed to mainly intermodal transportation, the company will adopt a model similar to cooperating with “Momo” to launch a customized version. Overseas departments are also continuing to expand channels. For example, Vietnam and Indonesia both had good growth last year. At the same time, they will also cooperate with mobile phone export manufacturers in the second half of this year, such as Huawei, which has now begun negotiations. 2. Cross-promotion situation: This work will start in the second half of the year. The current stage is still in the user accumulation stage, which is not the best time to do cross-promotion. 3. Plans to launch games in China and Southeast Asia: The games promoted domestically in the first half of this year are still mainly games from last year. Some local games, such as bullfighting and mahjong for two, will be promoted in the first half of the year. Overseas, the company will launch some games that are slightly different from the board category. 4. The company's dividend policy: The company wants to maximize the value of cash. In the absence of project acquisitions and the need to use large amounts of cash, the company will continue to pay 30% of dividends. 5. The reason why APRU on the mobile side is lower than on the PC side, how can the mobile payment user experience be improved: First, ARPU is related to two factors. One is the type of game, that is, the life cycle of the game, and the other is the difference in the algorithm. In terms of algorithms, the number of mobile phone users is huge, so ARPU is low. In terms of life cycle, board games have a long life cycle, and there is enough time to improve ARPU. The company is more willing to pursue a longer life cycle, such as paying 10 yuan or 20 yuan a month. There will be no rush to reap the value of users. Also, now all mobile payments of 30 yuan or more require Alipay or bank cards, and the vast majority of users can only pay via SMS, so the net amount of each payment is low. The company is focusing on whether total revenue growth can meet the standards and whether the number of paying users and the paid penetration rate can increase. The degree of perfection of mobile payment channels has now improved quite well. The data shows that payments from the mobile level have increased 9 times over the same period last year. 6. How do you view competition with Tencent and domestic competitors: According to the company's data, since Tiantian was launched in Dezhou, the number of downloads of the company's products has increased 2 to 3 times, and Tencent has popularized a large portion of its user base and expanded its market capacity. In terms of long-term competition, the company focuses on exploring the gameplay of games, while Tencent's products focus more on social aspects from past experience. The two positions are not the same. Social games can form a wave in a short period of time, but they are not very sustainable. The company's products are very good at gaming, can accumulate the next batch of professional gamers, and can provide a stable income. Also, judging from the company's many years of cooperation with Tencent, Tencent ultimately wants to form a platform and then later open the platform to third parties. For example, the company's Texas Hold'em's revenue from the QQ space is quite good, and Tencent can also be expected to open up its mobile platform in the future. Channels other than the platform, such as Momo, Sing Bar, and other apps, all lack a good way to monetize and need to improve the level of monetization through games, so these software can also have good cooperation with the company in the future. Finally, the chess and card market is very large, and there is no problem in being able to accommodate multiple companies to operate in it in the future. 7. Will the overseas prepaid card business continue to contribute to gross profit in 2014: The company expanded prepaid cards from 2 languages to 4 languages in the second half of last year. As the overseas business strategy progresses, there should be good growth. In addition, the company is also considering testing the possibility of making prepaid cards usable on mobile devices in some countries where online payment systems are not very well developed. Overall, it's an upward trend. 8. Overseas market conditions: The overseas mobile market is growing very fast, especially in Thailand and Indonesia, where the smartphone penetration rate is growing rapidly. Companies in these markets are also replicating some domestic strategies, such as launching SMS payments. The company was the first game operator in these countries to use this model. Next, the company will communicate with telecom operators in Vietnam and Malaysia to open SMS payment channels. The product side is still mainly Texas Hold'em. A few smaller casual games will also be released in the second half of the year. In the future, the focus overseas will be on mobile phones and cooperation with channels that have traffic. 9. The company's overseas pre-installation model and cost: The company basically follows the CPS model for overseas pre-installation. If possible, it doesn't follow the CPA model, that is, pay how much to buy what amount. Large manufacturers value long-term effects, so the CPA model is not particularly attractive to large manufacturers. At the same time, the company will also adopt strategies, such as prepaying a portion of the fee to the manufacturer as a security deposit, and then sharing the subsequent revenue. In this way, the sensitivity in terms of cost will decrease. 10. The company's deferred revenue has increased by about 50% over the past three years, and whether it will guide 2014 revenue: accounts receivable will eventually be converted into revenue. This logic was founded on a digital listing. 11. There is room for growth in the company's net profit margin: The company hopes that the net profit margin will remain constant between 30% and 35%; OP Margin will remain around 35% to 40%; GP Margin will remain around 60% 12. The share of revenue from China: around 31%. This year, the company will also release 5 to 8 board games, of which local products will be the highlight. However, in terms of revenue status, the life cycle of board games will be relatively long, and the warm-up cycle will also be relatively long. The first 3 to 6 months of game operation is generally the user training period. Future revenue growth from China is definitely an important strategy. 13. Overseas cooperation opportunities with Tencent: The company believes that the opportunities for cooperation with Tencent overseas will be greater, because the company's overseas business already has a certain foundation. Currently, there are not many developers in the market that can launch products in multiple languages in multiple regions, and Liberal Arts has the ability to develop the same products in 19 languages. If Tencent wants to find partners abroad, the company will be the best partner. 14. The company's paid retention rate: The rate that players stay after entering the game until the end is about 15% to 20%. 15. The driving force for the future growth in the number of users: one is online platform promotion; the second is that mobile phone pre-installation companies expect China to ship more than 300 million new smartphones this year, which will drive this growth; in addition, companies are also beginning to pay attention to the set-top box market. There are already products that can be operated and released on it. Once set-top boxes enter an explosion period, there will be good growth, but it will take time. 16. Summary and suggestions: The board games developed by the company have a long life cycle and stable paying users, and can generate stable income. Launching a new product requires a long warm-up period, and 5 to 8 new games will be launched this year. Overseas operations are expected to generate revenue growth as payment methods improve. Moreover, the company has successfully completed the transformation from PC to mobile, and the share of revenue from mobile devices has reached 40.4%, and the future will continue to be affected by the advancement of the mobile Internet process. The current stock price corresponds to the net profit PE after the 2013 adjustment, which is about 34.4 times, and the corresponding net profit is expected to be about 17.2 times. If the company can maintain high growth in the future, the valuation is undervalued, so it is recommended to pay attention.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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