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天晟新材(300169):业绩迎拐点 后劲更十足

國信證券 ·  Mar 13, 2014 00:00  · Researches

Highly recommended ratings are expected to have EPS of 0.18, 0.31, and 0.46 yuan for 14-16, respectively, corresponding to current stock prices of 42x, 25x, and 16x. The company has both short-term and long-term perspectives, and its performance has reversed and re-entered a high growth channel. Coupled with the scarcity of new material targets, the compound growth rate will exceed 50% over the next three years, so I recommend the rating. Short-term perspective: bottom reversal plus performance inflection point. Price increases in structural bubbles bring performance elasticity. Based on the logic that wind power picked up in the second half of '13 and continued upward in '14, we judge that the structural bubble for blades will usher in a recovery from the bottom. Under the oligopoly pattern, price increases are expected to be achieved in the second half of 2014. According to preliminary estimates, a 15% increase in the price of PVC structural foam will bring a profit of 30 to 40 million yuan and increase EPS by 0.11-0.12 yuan. Short to medium term perspectives: Post-processing business, short and fast, driving rapid performance growth, post-processing business is in line with the company's current layout of focusing on short, flat and fast projects. It has been deeply involved in the market for many years and ushered in a harvest period. Previously, it mainly supplied high-end customers such as Daikin and Sharp, with outstanding quality. Now, through a slight reduction in prices, penetration into mid-range and low-end customers has been achieved, and market share is rapidly expanding. The growth rate has been above 30% in recent years, and it is expected that with the advancement of supporting customers such as Changhong and Hisense, the growth rate is still expected to remain above 40% in 2014. Medium- to long-term perspective: new products+new fields, increased value, full of momentum to acquire Xinguang Environmental Protection, increased revenue, and opened up the blue ocean market. Xinguang Environmental Protection promised to contribute 26 million, 36 million, and 58 million yuan in profits over 14-16 years, with impressive increases. More importantly, with Xinguang's system, Tiansheng is expected to find a structural bubble application field similar in size to wind power. Combining the broad background of the restart of the high-speed rail, the company's many reserve projects and technologies are expected to reinvent a Tiansheng. Catalysts: Structural bubbles successfully raised in prices; regular reports highlight risk alerts: wind power recovery falls short of expectations; post-processing development is not going well; industrialization of new materials has failed

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