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中国铁钛(893.HK):中游行业弱势向上游蔓延 维持中性评级

China Iron and Titanium (893.HK): mid-stream industry weakness spreads to upstream to maintain neutral rating

交銀國際 ·  Mar 18, 2014 00:00  · Researches

At the same time as the volume decreases, the weak industry leads to a decline in mining.

In July, 13 years, the suspension of mining Baicao area for exploration purposes caused a negative impact on the company's mining capacity, and the results showed that the mining value of the ore was not available. At the same time, the decline in demand for ball sales, coupled with a sharp decline in performance, contributed to a sharp drop in profit in 2013 by 58.7% to 179.1 million yuan. Looking forward to 14 years, the weakness of the industry as a whole has forced the upstream mining industry to start operating its own profit space, the traditional fine powder and ball powder have unknowingly increased, while the elite will be a slow recovery process in 14 years, and will return to a 12-year high in the short term. The estimated EPS for 13 years is 0.086 yuan for 14 years, respectively. At the same time, the headers range from HK$1.30 to HK$0.94, and the corresponding company's PE in 2014 is 8.0x.

The company's operating income fell sharply: in 2013, the company realized 1429.9 million yuan in operating income, a decrease of 6.8 percent over the same period last year, and a profit of 179.1 yuan, corresponding to a basic earnings per share of 0.09 yuan, a decrease of 58.7 percent in the same period last year. The main reasons for the sharp decline are as follows: 1) the amount of fine powder in major mining areas has been suspended. 2) the financial difficulties have spread upwards and other enterprises have spread, and the company's main products have declined.

Volume: the suspension of mining in the mining area leads to a decline in the volume:

1) reduction of refined powder containing fine powder (accounting for 77% of the 13-year sales revenue): the white grass area was shut down from July 13 to March 14 for exploration purposes. The estimated shutdown period will affect 125,000 tons of fine powder in 14 years. The 15-year sales of refined powder in 14 years decreased from 2.2 million tons / 2.2 million tons to 2.7 million tons / 2.2 million tons, with a drop of 5.9% and 4.2%. 2) the progress of ball sales has been slow (accounting for 2% of the 13-year sales revenue): the company has built a new ball mill, which has increased the demand for fine powder, which has led to a substantial reduction in the demand for balls. During the period, the company sold only 38,000 tons of iron ore, a sharp drop of 92.2% in 12 years. 2) the volume of high-grade refined goods has increased significantly (accounting for 10% of sales revenue): during the period, the volume of high-grade refined products has increased by 32.8% to 1963 million tons, but the gap has been greatly reduced because the proportion is too low.

Gao GE:

The sale of fine powder is flat, while that of fine powder goes back to a high position.

The main results are as follows: 1) the performance of fine powder containing iron has been good in 13 years, and the average sales price has increased by 44 yuan / kg in 12 years. The reason is that as mining goes deep into the ground, various costs have increased, and the gross profit margin has not improved. 2) the peak of the "elite" has declined, and it is expected that it will return to the high level in the short term. According to statistics, the price of high-grade fine goods in Panzhihua area dropped from 1094 yuan / yuan at the beginning of 13 years to 581 yuan / yuan at the end of December, and the company's sales volume dropped from 1171 yuan / yuan in 12 years to 713 yuan / yuan in 13 years. In response to the weak economy, the demand for raw materials has decreased.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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