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卓翼科技(002369):进入小米供应链 互联网思维得体现

招商證券 ·  Mar 13, 2014 00:00  · Researches

Incident: Zhuo Yi Technology announced that its wholly-owned subsidiary Tianjin Zhuoda and Zimi Electronics (Xiaomi Corporation Investment) signed a “Framework Agreement on Commissioned Production and Processing”, which will use the EMS model to produce electronic products such as mobile power banks for Zimi Electronics, with estimated annual sales revenue of 300 to 50 million yuan (excluding tax). We raised the company's rating to highly recommended -A. The reviews are as follows: 1. Entering the Xiaomi supply chain and opening up new growth space, the management's Internet mindset is reflected. In our report “New Market Changes Inject New Vitality”, we predicted that the company would focus on new customers such as the Internet and e-commerce as development goals. The successful marriage with Xiaomi this time is actually a solid step on the path of transformation. In addition to the expected contribution of 300 to 500 million dollars in Xiaomi power revenue, we think it is more important to pay attention to the changes in the management thinking of the company's new management, which shows that the current leaders are gradually adapting to the changes in the traditional foundry industry brought about by the Internet mentality. Compared to traditional smart terminal customers, under Xiaomi's original “asset-light, e-commerce channel+fan economy” business model, OEM enterprises benefit more. First, Internet companies are not constrained by the complex supply chain management and control systems of traditional mobile phone manufacturers. Foundry companies have more room to make full use of their product advantages or supply chain advantages, and integrated R&D and production capacity will be what Zhuo Yi will focus on in the future; second, the e-commerce model has a flat channel, which although it claims to sell at zero cost, places more emphasis on product quality and benefits suppliers more than traditional mobile phone manufacturers; third, under the Internet model of fan economy and hungry marketing methods, products are easily sold out. Even for newly entering foundries, products will be sold out very quickly. At the beginning of the year, Xiaomi Chairman Lei Jun revealed that Xiaomi power supplies will achieve sales volume of 20 million this year. From the high cost performance ratio of “69 yuan+10400 mAh” and the situation where sales were previously sold out in a short period of time, we believe that market demand is not a problem, and that Xiaomi phones have a stock market of 26 million and a sales target of 40 million units in 2014, so it is very likely that 20 million Xiaomi power supplies will be completed. This time, Zhuoyi Technology signed an EMS foundry framework agreement for Xiaomi Power. The estimated sales revenue is around 400 million, which we estimate corresponds to 8 million to 10 million units. Assuming a net interest rate of 5%, if all are implemented as scheduled, net profit will be increased by 20 million, equivalent to an increase of about 20% over last year's performance. In addition to this, Zimi's electronics business covers the development and sales of products such as smart phones, mobile power banks, and LTE MI-FI. We believe that based on the good cooperation with Zimi, Zhuo Yi is expected to successfully expand OEM to other products. Furthermore, in addition to Xiaomi, we believe that the company's cooperation with other Internet companies will also be relatively smooth. 2. The actual controller has completed the change, and short-term holdings reduction risks have been released. The company's former actual controller, Mr. Tian, has reduced his holdings by a total of 14.47 million shares this year. The current shareholding ratio has dropped to 15.2%, which is lower than the current chairman, Mr. Xia. Thus, Mr. Xia, the new chairman of the company, officially became the actual controller of the company, and the management team officially completed the transition between the old and the new. In the future, under the flat and fast management structure dominated by Mr. Xia, who is strong, the company will be better able to adapt to the current changes in the new market and the new needs of customers. Furthermore, since this year, the reduction ratio of Mr. Tian's holdings has reached 25% of the total share capital before the reduction, so the risk of short-term holdings reduction has been released. 3. Options fees may affect short-term performance, but the opening of new markets may help future outbreaks. Some time before the increase to “highly recommended-A,” the company's stock price was adjusted due to major shareholders' holdings reduction and systemic risk in the SME board. We expect that with the development of cooperation between the company and Xiaomi and other Internet companies, the company's transformation will gradually be confirmed, and there is still a possibility that smart module products will break through into the smart home and wearable fields in the future. Furthermore, with the introduction of new customers, the production capacity of the Tianjin plant will also be gradually released, and the capacity utilization rate will be further increased. At the same time, the company will better adapt to changes in the customer structure in a shorter period of time, and we expect that it will not be ruled out that it will adopt a development path that balances extension and endogenesis. The company predicts a profit of 15.55 million yuan to 20.57 million yuan for the first quarter of 2014, an increase of 55%-105% over the previous year, corresponding to an EPS of 0.06-0.08 yuan. However, considering that the base for the first quarter of last year was low, and that the equity incentives in 2014 had amortized nearly 30 million in option expenses, we will not adjust our profit forecast for 2014 yet, but there is a possibility that performance will explode in the future. EPS for 13-15 is expected to be 0.4/0.6/0.82 (+0.04) yuan, respectively. We are optimistic about the company's subsequent breakthroughs in new customers, new products, and new channels, and the continuous catalysis brought about by endogenesis and extension, and raised to “Highly Recommended - A”, with a target price of 27.00 yuan. Risk warning: order release is lower than expected, labor costs are growing too fast, and depreciation pressure on new plants and equipment is too high

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