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四川美丰(000731)年报点评:车用尿素业务爆发在即 LNG项目前景可观

天相投顧 ·  Mar 20, 2014 00:00  · Researches

In 2013, the company achieved operating income of 5.768 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.4%; realized operating profit of 201 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 45.8%; net profit attributable to owners of the parent company was 170 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 43.6%; and basic earnings per share of 0.29 yuan. The profit distribution plan is to distribute a cash dividend of 0.6 yuan (tax included) for every 10 shares to all shareholders. The decline in urea prices has dragged down the company's performance. The company is a leading domestic gas head urea enterprise. The traditional urea market continues to be sluggish, natural gas prices continue to rise, and the profit level of gas head urea has declined sharply. Currently, the domestic urea market price is only about 1,600 yuan/ton, which is nearly 30% lower than the average price in 2012, and the decline exceeds our previous expectations. The gross margin of the company's urea business during the reporting period was 23.64%, down 7.91 percentage points from the previous year. The company gradually withdrew from part of the gas head urea business and moved to the automotive urea and LNG clean energy market, relying on the background of Sinopec, the majority shareholder. With the IV standard of beneficiary countries, the automotive urea business is about to explode. Since the beginning of 2014, some provinces and cities in China have begun to implement national IV diesel standards one after another. It is expected that the nationwide upgrade will be completed within the year. The SCR technology route is an inevitable choice for national phase IV diesel vehicles to reduce emissions. The automotive urea market will gradually start in 2014. We expect domestic vehicle urea consumption in 2014 to be more than 10 times that of 2013. Assuming that the sales growth rate for heavy trucks, heavy trucks, medium trucks, and medium customers is 5% after 2015, excluding some natural gas and other models, all diesel vehicles are equipped with SCR systems and use automotive urea, then by 2018, China's automotive urea solution market capacity will reach more than 6.78 million tons, equivalent to 2.2 million tons of solid urea. At present, the company has taken the lead in forming an annual production capacity of 700,000 tons in China. Relying on Sinopec's channel advantages, the company's automotive urea business will begin to experience explosive growth in 2014. Sinopec's cooperative LNG project has promising profit prospects due to gas sources and the southwest blue ocean market. Natural gas is currently the most promising clean energy source, and domestic natural gas demand will enter a stage of accelerated growth in the future. On the one hand, LNG can be used as a complement to the low penetration rate of CNG; on the other hand, with the construction of a large number of domestic LNG terminals and the full launch of the vehicle and ship market, there is broad scope for market demand. The company cooperated with Sinopec subsidiaries to build LNG projects that process 1 million square meters of natural gas per day in Langzhong and Bazhong. At the same time, the Bazhong municipal government supported the company's involvement in the construction and operation of 10 LNG filling stations. Based on the current gas source price of 2.14 yuan/m3 and vehicle gas prices of about 4.0-4.5 yuan/m3, the gross profit of LNG production and channel side can reach 1.3-1.8 yuan/m3, and the profit prospects are promising. Profit forecasts and investment advice. We forecast that the company's 2014-2016 EPS will be 0.45 yuan, 0.88 yuan, and 1.33 yuan respectively. According to the current latest closing price calculation, the corresponding dynamic PE will be 19 times, 10 times, and 6 times, respectively, maintaining an investment rating of “increased holdings”. Risk warning: (1) the risk that the national IV standard will be extended and the market promotion rate for automotive urea will fall short of expectations; (2) the risk that the price of natural gas will rise more than expected; (3) the risk that the progress of the LNG project will fall short of expectations.

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