2013 performance is in line with expectations
In 2013, the company's main revenue was 1.616 billion, down 7.4% from the same period last year, and the net profit was 224 million yuan, up 200.4% from the same period last year. EPS is 0.31 yuan, which is consistent with the performance forecast and in line with market expectations.
Firmly enter the healthy pension industry, "broad world, great achievements"
The company disclosed in the annual report that "this year clearly regards the healthy pension industry as a major strategic development direction" and "vigorously carries out in-depth negotiations and cooperation with relevant institutions at home and abroad". At present, the aging situation in China is very grim. From a social and cultural perspective, there will be a difficult situation of providing for the aged in China in the future. "the decline of filial piety" and the "national policy of family planning" are bound to make "institutional pension" a realistic choice for the elite born in the 1950s and 1980s. China's "institutional pension industry" has a broad space for development in the future, and it is undoubtedly a sunrise industry. I have made a detailed analysis of the large gap between supply and demand in China's "institutional pension industry" in the "Special Research Series report on the pension industry for the elderly: there is a place for the old, who can rely on?". It is expected that the outbreak of the pension industry in the future may be similar to the outbreak of e-commerce in recent years-"the non-mainstream demand of the former non-mainstream population" has become the mainstream demand because "the non-mainstream population has become the mainstream population".
The medical cooperation project may start as soon as possible, and the company is looking forward to opening a new chapter. The company has announced that it has signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Phoenix Group, Jiangsu Provincial people's Hospital and Jiangsu Renyi Hospital Investment Management Co., Ltd., to jointly develop the healthy pension industry. This annual report reveals that "the cooperation project will be started as soon as possible." The restructuring of public hospitals should be a general trend. Jiangsu Renyi Hospital Investment Management Co., Ltd., which jointly participates in the cooperation between Phoenix shares and Jiangsu Provincial people's Hospital, is an enterprise that can provide hospital investment consulting services and solutions. once the provincial people's hospital is reformed, Phoenix share investment should be reasonable. As an indispensable supporting part of the pension industry, medical resources will lay a solid foundation for the development of the company's pension industry.
Pension industry chain layout, "the introduction of third-party long-term funds" in line with the direction of state-owned enterprise reform, pension industry is a special comprehensive industry derived from the first, second and traditional tertiary industry, the industrial chain is very long. The company's annual report reveals that "it will actively carry out strategic layout around the whole industrial chain of the pension industry, including medical care, nursing, intelligent services, culture, real estate development for the aged and ecological agriculture". The introduction of "third-party long-term funds" and professional pension operation and management institutions, investment institutions. In my opinion, the investment payback period of the pension industry is longer, but as an emerging industry, the potential for sustained growth is better, and TVg is more obvious. if it is operated properly, it is not difficult for the average annual rate of return to be higher than WACC, so the industry is favored by long-term funds. For foreign capital, it is more attractive because of the arbitrage space of risk-free interest rates at home and abroad. From the classification of long-term funds in the current layout of the pension industry, because the debt side has long-term advantages, and in line with the relevant policies of the CIRC, it has more advantages compared with other funds. Moreover, as the actual controller of the company is the people's Government of Jiangsu Province, the "introduction of third-party funds" to develop the pension industry is also in line with the general direction of the current reform of state-owned enterprises to promote mixed ownership.
Actively expand comprehensive financial business and provide financial service support for the development of pension industry
The major shareholder intends to inject 890 million shares of Jiangsu Bank directly into Phoenix shares. In my opinion, in order to successfully complete the asset injection, the best plan is to increase and replace the major shareholders, but the major shareholders currently own more than 61% of Phoenix shares, so it is necessary to do a good job in market capitalization management. let investors fully agree with the strategic development direction and value of Phoenix in order to avoid that the shareholding ratio of major shareholders exceeds the upper limit after the fixed increase.
Self-innovation, embracing the future, maintaining recommended ratings
The company's annual report revealed that "the pension project will be implemented this year." In my opinion, from the perspective of large cycle, China's real estate industry has passed the stage of rapid development. I firmly believe that of the 142 real estate companies currently listed, there will be few left to survive as real estate business in ten years' time. The transformation of small and medium-sized companies is the trend of the times. I am optimistic about the company's self-innovation and embrace the general direction of the future. Not considering the impact of asset injection and proposed expansion of pension industry projects, but only considering the original business, it is estimated that the EPS will be 0.60 yuan in 2014, maintaining the recommended rating.
Risk
The above cooperation and investment plans are still uncertain.