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顺风光电(1165.HK)调研简报:2014年光伏目标新增装机3GW

Shunfeng Optoelectronics (1165.HK) Research Briefing: 2014 PV Target Adds 3GW of Installed Installed

國元(香港) ·  Mar 28, 2014 00:00  · Researches

1. Overview of 2013 results

Revenue was achieved during the period of 1.53 billion yuan, gross profit was 151 million yuan, gross margin was 9.9% (of which manufacturing gross margin was 12% and trade gross margin was 4.8%), and losses of 1,818 million yuan during the year were mainly due to a loss of 1,816 million yuan in the adjusted fair value of convertible bonds.

2. Solar energy installation planning

Installed capacity reached 890 MW in 2013, the plan is to reach a total of 4 GW by the end of 2014, a cumulative total of 7 GW by the end of 2015, and 10 GW in 2016. It is planned to start construction of 5G in 2014, connected to 3G, of which 2.4 GW is ground-based power plants and 600 MW of distributed power plants. Of the 3W installation plan, 1.3 GW was approved in the fourth quarter of 2013 and moved to 2014, 1.3 GW has been signed and is awaiting formal approval, and 390 MW is under construction. The 3GW power plant does not include the development of foreign power plants. The development of Suntech's overseas power plants in 2014 was mainly in the UK and Japan, with an IRR of 15% in Japan and 20-25% in the UK.

3. Production capacity planning

In terms of silicon wafers, production capacity reached 2.5 GW in 2014, 6 GW in 2015, and 10 GW in 2016. In terms of batteries, production capacity reached 1.75 GW in 2014, 5 GW in 2015, and 6.5 GW in 2016. In terms of components, production capacity reached 2.1 GW in 2014, 5GW in 2015, and 6.5 GW in 2016. After approval by the shareholders' meeting on April 7, 2014, Wuxi Suntech was officially merged under Shunfeng, and sales of no less than 10 billion yuan will be achieved in 2014. At present, Wuxi Suntech has fully resumed production. Suntech is a good international brand and is very popular in Europe and America. Some manufacturers have designated Wuxi Suntech products.

4. Power plant capital expenditure

The 1GW power plant has a total investment of 9 billion dollars. The company's 3GW is 27 billion dollars. Based on 20% of the capital, the company invested 5.4 billion yuan, and the remaining 21.6 billion yuan is used for bank financing. It is expected that the company will raise 4 to 5 billion dollars in 2014, adopt financial instruments and other arrangements, and that capital will be available in the second half of the year. CDB has loans of 2 billion dollars, Hong Kong's industrial and commercial banks and Minsheng Bank have 1.3 billion loans. Domestic security and investment, we are also focusing on customer arrangements. The company will announce the approval results of CDB's major credit grants in mid-April. Furthermore, foreign banks abroad are very concerned about us. Wuxi Suntech is now debt-free, and banks are very fond of it. In November, the Banking Regulatory Commission issued a document fully supporting photovoltaic companies. In the future, Gongnong China Construction will have excellent financing options for downstream power plants.

5. Actual power generation capacity in 2014-2015

1.5 GW power generation capacity in 2014, 5-6 GW operating power generation capacity in 2015.

6. Number of hours used by the power plant

The company's 890MW power plants are located in well-lit western Xin****hai, Gansu and Ningxia. They have 3,000 hours of lighting and 1,550 hours of utilization.

7. The company's competitive advantage

1) The company entered when the photovoltaic industry was in a downturn. The cost was very low, and it had a first-mover advantage

2) Early power plant resource lines were very cheap, and the return on investment was high

3) Reasonably acquire Suntech in Wuxi, and the middle and upstream costs are also very low

4) Synergies across the entire industry chain

5) Strong executive ability of management

8. Distributed projects

According to the 18 demonstration zones planned by the country, the company has reached cooperation intentions with 18 companies. Of these, 8 have already been locked in, 2 have been signed, 1 is being signed, and 5 are under negotiation. The company has adopted independent issuance and acquisition of distributed projects. The country plans 8GW, and the company plans to develop 2G. A 600MW project will be launched in 2014, which will become the number one distributed project in China.

9. Time for cash flow to become positive

Generally, 1G power plants correspond to 1.5 billion dollars in revenue. 10 GW is 15 billion dollars in revenue. The company's own capital expenditure for developing 3GW projects is 5.4 billion yuan, and the company's product revenue will reach 10 billion dollars. The future will increase year by year. It is expected that 2016 will generate a large amount of cash flow.

Currently, the country's electricity prices for ground-based power plants are very clear, but the distributed type has yet to be verified. In the future, when companies securitize power plants in a timely manner and adopt overhauling and leasing models for large-scale equipment, they will all save capital expenses and bring positive cash flow to the industry.

10. Our suggestions

The company's power plant and capacity plans are ambitious, and profits and returns are yet to be verified.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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