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悦达投资(600805)年报点评:东风悦达起亚三工厂产能释放 其他业务持续改善

東興證券 ·  Mar 31, 2014 00:00  · Researches

Events: In 2013, the company achieved operating income of 2.110 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.06%; total profit of 1,470 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.78%; net profit attributable to owners of the parent company was 1,292 billion yuan, an increase of 16.22% over the previous year; and achieved basic earnings per share of 1.52 yuan. Opinion: Dongfeng Yueda Kia's three plants were put into operation, and the first phase of the project could be put into production by the end of 2014. The three Dongfeng Yueda Kia plants were put into operation in January. Currently, all production of the K3 has been transferred to the third plant. The K3 hatchback version will be launched in April, and the K4 will also be launched in around September. These models will also be produced at the three plants. According to the company's current production schedule, the annual output of the three plants can reach 170,000 vehicles, and the monthly output at the end of the year can reach close to 20,000 vehicles, which is almost 20,000 vehicles, basically reaching production. In addition, Dongfeng Yueda Kia is also actively expanding its sales network. By the end of 2013, it had more than 600 4S stores nationwide, and plans to increase the number by an average of 100 each year over the next two years, and reach more than 800 4S stores in 2015. We expect Dongfeng Yueda Kia to sell 63-650,000 vehicles in 2014, an increase of 15-20% over the previous year, achieve operating income close to 70 billion yuan, an increase of 25-30% over the previous year, achieve net profit of 5-5.2 billion yuan, and contribute investment income of 1.25 to 1.3 billion yuan, an increase of 20-25% over the previous year. The decline in profit in the expressway business has narrowed in line with expectations. In 2014, the company's road enterprises achieved total revenue of 4.183 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.57%, including 675 million yuan for West Copper, 3.414 billion yuan for Beijing-Shanghai, and 94.19 million yuan for Xuzhou; net profit of 1,694 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.43%, including 267 million yuan for West Copper, 1,426 billion yuan for Beijing-Shanghai, and 455,800 yuan for Xuzhou; and total equity net profit of 487 million yuan, in line with our previous expectations that the decline had narrowed to within 15%. After removing the base factor in 2014, the company's expressway business profits will remain stable. The Chenjiagang Power Generation Company contributed 53.49 million yuan in investment income, and there is still plenty of room for growth in the future. The Chenjiagang Power Plant achieved operating income of 2,959 million yuan and net profit of 267 million yuan. The investment income corresponding to the company's 20% equity holding was 53.49 million yuan, which is in line with our expectations for the third quarter. These are just the benefits generated by the operation of two 660,000 kilowatt domestic ultra-supercritical coal-fired power generators in the first phase of the Chenjiagang Power Company. The second phase of the project plans to set 2 million kilowatt ultra-supercritical coal-fired power generators. It has now been reported that if it is put into operation in the future, Chenjiagang Power Company can contribute about 130 million yuan in investment income. Although the coal, textile, and tractor businesses are still declining or losing money, both the decline and the amount of losses have continued to narrow, and it is expected that they will continue to improve in 2014. Wulanqu Coal Company sold 1,088,000 tons, achieving sales revenue of 192 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 55.17%, and net profit of 15.65 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 70.86%, and an 80% year-on-year decline in the third quarter of 2013. Textile companies (including Yueda Home Textiles) achieved sales revenue of 1,142 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.51%, and net profit loss of 100 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of more than 20 million yuan. The tractor joint venture achieved sales revenue of 704 million yuan, an increase of 2.68% over the previous year; net profit was a loss of 19.23 million yuan, a decrease of 48.71% from the previous year. It is expected that the tractor joint venture will basically achieve a profit and loss balance in 2014. The decline or loss of these weak businesses was narrower than in the third quarter of 2013 and is continuing to improve, and it is expected that these businesses will continue to improve in 2014. The company has great potential in new materials and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. In October 2013, the company integrated and formed Jiangsu Yueda New Materials Technology Co., Ltd. on the basis of Yueda Motley, using the New Materials Company as a platform to expand development and operation in the field of new materials such as carbon materials. The company plans to produce and sell 72,000 square meters of thermally conductive graphite film in 2014, achieving revenue of 25.2 million yuan. Furthermore, South Korea's Hyundai and Kia recently unveiled a hydrogen fuel cell vehicle with a battery life of 600 kilometers, paving the way for the company's future development in the field of fuel cell vehicles. Conclusion: As Dongfeng Yueda Kia continues to launch new production capacity, new networks, and new products after 2014, the company's compound profit growth rate is expected to be close to 20% over the next three years. The company's 2014-2016 EPS is expected to be 1.75, 2.05, and 2.48 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE is 6.39 times, 5.45 times, and 4.51 times, respectively, maintaining the “highly recommended” rating.

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