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小南国(03666.HK):管理层将带领公司走出低谷 维持“买入”

國泰君安國際 ·  Apr 2, 2014 00:00  · Researches

Little South China recorded only a slight profit in '13, which is in line with our expectations. The company's revenue was RMB 1.39 billion, a slight increase of 4.0% year-on-year, mainly due to a 10.1% decrease in same-store sales. Reported net profit plummeted 99.1% year on year to 1.1 million yuan due to falling gross margin, relatively fixed operating costs, and losses caused by store closures. The company opened 19 new stores in '13, but closed 8 stores at the same time. Thus, as of the end of '13, the company operated a total of 83 stores. We expect the company to open 21 new restaurants in 2014, of which more than half will be the “South Restaurant” with the highest profit margin. On the other hand, we also expect the company to close at least 5 loss-making restaurants in 2014. We expect per capita consumption to decrease by 1.1% year on year in 2014, but passenger traffic will increase by 3.7%, so we expect same-store sales growth to be 2.6% in 2014. However, this moderate growth forecast was not enough to drive the company's net profit to record a very significant increase in 2014. We expect the Company's net profit per share for 2014-2016 to be RMB0.009, RMB0.058 and RMB0.098 respectively. We believe that the growth momentum of the domestic mass catering market is still there, and that after the company changes its strategy, same-store sales growth will stop falling and pick up. The continued increase in the contribution of “Nan Xiao Guan” and the continued increase in passenger traffic will drive the company's net profit to increase significantly in 15 years. Although the 14-year valuation is not cheap, we are confident that management will lead the company out of the trough. We maintain Xiaonanguo's “buy” rating, and the target price of HK$1.65 remains unchanged, which is equivalent to 22.0 times the company's 15-year price-earnings ratio.

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