In 2013, the company achieved operating income of 207 million yuan, an increase of 6.29% over the previous year; operating profit of 55 million yuan, an increase of 3.53% over the previous year; net profit attributable to the parent company of 55 million yuan, an increase of 0.15% over the previous year; and basic earnings per share of 0.89 yuan. The distribution plan is to send 5 shares for every 10 shares, transfer 5 shares from the Provident Fund, and distribute a cash dividend of 4 yuan (tax included). The company's main business is the R&D, production, sales and service of financial equipment. It has the design and manufacturing capabilities of financial equipment such as fully automatic banknote bundlers and fully automatic binding machines. The main products include a series of banknote bundlers and binding machines, RMB anti-counterfeiting work stations, sorting machines, and banknote detectors. It is a major supplier and service provider of products related to banking equipment in China, and is a leading enterprise in the two market segments of banknote bundlers and hose binding machines. Revenue and gross margin levels of banknote bundling machines and binding machines declined year over year. The strapping machine business achieved revenue of 82 million yuan, down 10.51% year on year; gross margin was 62.19%, down 1.45 percentage points year on year. The binding machine business achieved revenue of 38 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15.29%; gross margin was 29.85%, a year-on-year decrease of 2.51 percentage points. The two businesses together accounted for 58% of revenue, down 12 percentage points from 2012. Revenue growth is mainly due to self-service businesses and service businesses. The self-service business achieved revenue of 40 million yuan, an increase of 65.12% over the previous year, mainly due to the increase in demand for anti-counterfeiting work stations in RMB. Services and other businesses achieved revenue of 27 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.95%. The annual equipment sales volume was 29,400 units, down 5.9% from the previous year. We estimate that the sales volume of banknote bundlers was about 8,000 units, a decrease of 10% from the previous year; the sales volume of binding machines was about 17,500 units, a decrease of 15% from the previous year; and the sales volume of RMB anti-counterfeiting work stations was about 3,500 units, an increase of 60% over the previous year. It may be difficult for the banknote bundler business to resume high growth. Banknote bundlers are currently the main source of the company's revenue, but in 2011-2013, the year-on-year growth rate of banknote bundler revenue fell from 17% to -10%, showing a downward trend year by year. The main customers of the company's banknote bundlers are commercial banks. Currently, the country's total annual demand is about 50,000 units, of which 40,000 units are renewal requirements and 10,000 units are additional requirements. Demand for banknote bundlers comes mainly from banks' cash operations. Since 2013, China's Internet finance industry has developed rapidly, and online payment services such as Alipay and WeChat Pay have developed rapidly. Since the online payment business has a certain replacement effect for the cash business, in the long run, the rapid development of the online payment business will definitely have a certain impact on the cash business, thereby affecting the speed of development of the cash business, and ultimately the increase in demand for banknote bundlers. We believe that it will be difficult for the banknote bundler business to resume a rapid growth trend in the future. Profit forecast: We expect the company's EPS for 2014-2016 to be 0.98 yuan, 1.09 yuan, and 1.21 yuan respectively. According to the latest closing price calculation, the corresponding dynamic price-earnings ratios are 41X, 36X, and 33X, respectively, giving it a “neutral” investment rating. Risk warning: (1), risk of declining demand in the banknote bundler industry; (2), risk of self-service business development falling short of expectations.
汇金股份(300368):销量下滑 收入增速显著放缓
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