Maintain the recommended rating with a reasonable valuation of 12.4 yuan
In the short term, the recovery of wind power brings about a rebound in the bottom of the structural bubble, which is expected to usher in a rise in price and volume; in the short and medium term, the post-processing business is "short and fast", tamping the performance foundation; and in the medium and long term, the extension expansion will build a new blue ocean. It is estimated that the EPS for 14-16 years will be 0.18,0.31 and 0.46 yuan respectively, and the 15-year 40xPE will be reasonably valued at 12.4 yuan, which is strongly optimistic and recommended.
Successfully reversed losses in the first quarter, in line with expectations
14Q1 achieved an income of 123 million yuan, an increase of-1.87% over the same period last year, and a net profit of 2.1 million yuan, reversing the loss trend since 13H1. The contribution of non-recurrent profit and loss to profit is about 16 million yuan. The net operating cash flow in the first quarter is about-24 million yuan, which has been greatly improved on the basis of-36 million yuan in 13Q4, and the operating fundamentals are gradually improving.
The price increase of structural bubble is expected to come in the second and third quarter.
Overall, the first quarter is the traditional off-season of wind power, and the company's structural bubble sales are basically the same as last year. 13-year sales growth of more than 20% year-on-year, in the wind power industry recovery environment, 14-year structural bubble sales are expected to exceed expectations. With regard to prices, it remained stable in the first quarter. We judge that in the context of no new capacity in the world, the recovery of wind power is transmitted to the raw materials through the industrial chain, and it is expected to usher in a structural bubble price increase after the second quarter. We estimate that the price increase of 15% will increase the net profit of 3000-40 million yuan.
Enter the field of rail relations and open up a new blue ocean
More than 80% of structural bubbles are used in wind power worldwide, compared with 90% in China, making structural bubbles too cyclical. The company's acquisition of Xinguang Environmental Protection, significance: 1) New high-speed growth profit source, performance commitment: 14-16 years to achieve a net profit of not less than 26 million, 36 million and 58 million yuan. 2) more importantly, in the context of the resumption of high-speed rail, the volume of rail transit is not only comparable to that of wind power, but also to find new applications for Tiansheng's many reserves of new materials and open the way for high growth.
Risk hint
Wind power declines again, competition worsens
Catalyst
Announce new order
The structure bubble smoothly raised the price.