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万昌科技(002581)2014年一季报点评:增长如期来临

國聯證券 ·  Apr 21, 2014 00:00  · Researches

Incident: The company announced its 2014 quarterly report. During the reporting period, it achieved operating income of 86.098 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.5%, net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 26.520 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.01%, net profit attributable to listed companies after deducting non-recurring profit and loss of 26.519 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.02%, and basic earnings per share of 0.19 yuan. At the same time, the company released a semi-annual performance forecast, achieving net profit of 5063.6 to 598.43 million yuan in the first half of the year, an increase of 10%-30% over the previous year. Comment: Revenue and profit growth are generally in line with expectations, and the release of production capacity is coming as scheduled. The sales volume of the company's main products, trimethyl oroformate and triethyl orthocarbonate, increased to varying degrees in the first quarter, and prices remained relatively stable. Once again, we repeat our recommendation logic. The company's 7,000-ton production expansion capacity has already been built. 14-15 will be the production capacity release period, while downstream demand for trimethyl oroformate and triethyl orthocarbonate products is growing steadily, so there is a high degree of certainty about the steady growth of the company's business. The company's gross margin remained stable. The company's consolidated gross profit margin for the first quarter was 43.91%, which remained stable both year on year and month on month. The company is an invisible champion in the field of trimethyl formate and triethyl orthocarboxylate. Although competition from new entrants has been fierce and product prices have declined in the past two years, the company's product yield has continued to rise, which has offset the impact of falling product prices to a certain extent, offsetting the impact of falling product prices. Gross margin has remained at a high level since listing, and profitability has been outstanding. The decrease in the expense ratio for the period caused the company's net profit to increase more than the increase in revenue. The increase in sales expenses and management expenses was less than the increase in revenue, leading to a decrease in the sales expense ratio and the management expense ratio. The company had plenty of cash on hand, and reverse treasury bond repurchases during the reporting period led to an increase in the company's interest income. Overall, the cost rate dropped sharply during the first quarter. Fixed assets have increased significantly due to the consolidation of ongoing construction of fund-raising projects. In the first quarter, the company completed the company's fund-raising project of 7,000 tons of trimethyl formate and triethyl orthocarbonate expansion projects, leading to the company adding 72.8 million yuan in fixed assets, so depreciation will increase in the second quarter. The forecast for the first half of the year increased by 10%-30%, in line with expectations. We expect the prices of trimethyl oroformate and triethyl orthocarboxylate to remain stable in the first half of the year, and sales volume will increase by about 15% year on year. Maintain a “Recommended” rating. The company's revenue is estimated to be 380 million yuan, 450 million yuan, and 525 million yuan respectively in 14-16, and achieve net profit attributable to listed companies of 105 million yuan, 122 million yuan, and 143 million yuan, respectively. The 2014-2016 EPS was 0.75 yuan, 0.86 yuan, and 1.01 yuan, respectively. The PE corresponding to the current stock price is 23, 20, and 17 times, maintaining the company's “recommended” rating. Risk warning. (1) The progress of the company's fund-raising project did not meet expectations; (2) the price decline of trimethyl oroformate and triethyl orthocarbonate exceeded expectations due to increased competition; (3) progress in new product development fell short of expectations.

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