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东方通信(600776)年报点评:无线集群业务迎来爆发期

招商證券 ·  Apr 23, 2014 00:00  · Researches

Oriental Communications achieved revenue of 43.43 billion yuan in 2013, an increase of 4% over the previous year; net profit of 190 million yuan, an increase of 0.6% over the previous year, and achieved an EPS of 0.15 yuan. The performance was in line with expectations. In 2014, the company's cluster business began to explode, and the financial electronics business continued to grow rapidly, and performance will enter a period of rapid growth. We are optimistic about the company's future development. The EPS for 14-16 is expected to be 0.24/0.33/0.44 yuan, maintaining the “Prudent Recommendation - A” investment rating. The performance was in line with expectations, the gross margin remained stable, and the cost ratio declined. Performance growth in 2013 was weak, mainly due to delays in the launch of the public security network market and a 64% drop in cluster business revenue. With the launch of the public security PDT market in 2014, the company's performance will enter a period of rapid development. The consolidated gross margin for 2013 was 12.5%, and the gross margin of each business was basically stable. As the share of cluster businesses with high gross margins increased, the consolidated gross margin would rise steadily. Furthermore, the management fee rate in '13 was 7.4%, down 1.3 percentage points from the previous year, mainly because the company stabilized R&D expenses, and the cost rate is expected to maintain a downward trend in '14 as revenue grows. The wireless cluster business has ushered in a period of explosion. The company's cluster business started well in 2014. In March, it won the bid for the Dalian Public Security Digital Cluster Project, which together with the subway project reached 90 million yuan. 2014 will be the year when the PDT scale starts. The Development and Reform Commission is expected to approve transfer funds for PDT construction, leveraging a capital scale of around 7 billion dollars this year and next two years. PDT is about to enter an intensive bidding period, and the 10 billion PDT market is about to begin. The company has mature PDT system products and is gradually making up for terminal shortcomings. It is expected that it will seize market share and share the explosion of the industry with its central enterprise background and government resources. The financial electronic business has maintained a relatively rapid growth rate. Looking at the ATM market, benefiting from the increase in all-in-one machines and the growth in rural areas, the overall growth rate of the industry is around 15%-20%. Domestic manufacturers will benefit from the acceleration of import substitution, and the growth rate will be higher than that of the industry. Currently, the company's ATM business mainly has customers such as ICBC, Bank of China, and Postbank. It is expected that it will enter the Agricultural Bank and CCB in the future. Moreover, Hangzhou Silver Star was acquired to form collaboration between products and customer resources. The financial electronic business grew by 19% in 2013, and is expected to maintain a growth rate of around 20% in the future. Maintain a “Prudent Recommendation - A” investment rating. In 2014, the company's cluster business began to explode, and the financial electronics business continued to grow rapidly, and performance will enter a period of rapid growth. We are optimistic about the company's future development. We expect EPS in 14-16 to be 0.24/0.33/0.44 yuan, corresponding to 48/35/26 times PE in 14-16, respectively, to maintain the “Prudent Recommendation - A” investment rating. We recommend that you pay close attention to the PDT market size and order situation. Risk warning: The public security PDT process fell short of expectations, and the development of e-finance customers fell short of expectations.

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