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天房发展(600322)季报点评:销售回升有望扭转上年业绩下滑

海通證券 ·  Apr 30, 2014 00:00  · Researches

Incident 1: The company released its 2013 annual report. During the reporting period, the company achieved operating income of 1,749 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 45.55%; net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 144 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 44.78%; and achieved basic earnings per share of 0.13 yuan. The company's dividend plan allocates a cash dividend of 0.40 yuan (tax included) for every 10 shares. Investment advice: The company's real estate business is all concentrated in Tianjin, covering commercial housing, guaranteed housing, and first-class land development business. Since last year, the company has increased its reserves for guaranteed housing projects (involving 1.2 million square meters of contracted housing). Currently, the company's total equity construction area is 4.37 million square meters (not taking into account the 1,700-acre Hangu Hexi land reclamation project), which can meet the company's development for the next three years. In the context of real estate regulation, the company maintained a cautious mentality so that its debt and cash flow were good, and advance payments per share were high. We estimate that the company's 2014 and 2015 EPS will be 0.25 yuan and 0.31 yuan, respectively, and the corresponding RNAV will be 6.69 yuan. As of April 29, the company closed at 3.27 yuan, corresponding 13.26 times PE in 2014 and 10.49 times PE in 2015. The company was given 65% of RNAV as its target price, corresponding to a target price of 4.35 yuan, maintaining the company's “gain” rating.

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