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江铃B(200550)跟踪报告:与福特合作逐渐深入_前期投入进入收获期

國元(香港) ·  Apr 29, 2014 00:00  · Researches

Sales volume increased sharply in the first quarter, and there was a breakthrough in SUV sales: in the first quarter of 2014, the company achieved operating income of 6.19 billion yuan, an increase of 26.3% over the previous year; realized net profit attributable to the parent company of nearly 600 million yuan, an increase of 19.8% over the previous year; and earnings per share were 0.69 yuan. As of March, the company's cumulative sales volume increased by nearly 19% to 67,000 units. By model, the cumulative sales volume of the Quanshun series and the JMC light truck series increased by 3.4% and 26.3% respectively from January to March; the number of SUVs sold was 3,152 units, achieving a breakthrough. We expect the company's automobile sales volume to reach 270,000 units in 2014, an increase of 18% over the previous year. The commercial vehicle industry has a stable position, and new models will be launched next year: Judging from the company's traditional business, the core business of light passenger cars and light pickup trucks, is developing steadily. In particular, light passenger cars, represented by Quanshun, have a very good reputation within the industry, are positioned in the high-end market, and are expected to develop steadily under the impetus of urban logistics. It is expected that some commercial vehicles will grow steadily in 2014, and two models of the next generation Quanshun will be launched in 2015, which is expected to drive the growth rate of this business. Cooperation with Ford is gradually deepening, and cost investment is coming to an end: Ford's cooperation with the company has gradually deepened, its shareholding has been expanded by 2 points, and the J08 and J09 projects have been introduced to the company. This means that the company is not only Ford's commercial vehicle platform in China, but has already entered the passenger car field. In recent years, the company has invested a lot in production capacity and research and development, and costs have increased dramatically. With the commencement of production at the Xiaolan base and the launch of new models, the company's cost investment will come to an end this year, and the company is about to enter a harvest period. In terms of growth, the increase in the SUV business in 2014 mainly came from the new Yusheng. This model can not only increase its share of the original professional market, but is also expected to achieve a certain breakthrough in the private consumer market. Furthermore, the company will introduce a mid-size SUV product from Ford, the J08, which is expected to start production in the first half of 2015, which will drive the growth rate of the SUV business in 2015. Maintaining a highly recommended rating, with a target price of HK$33.6:2015, the new SUV heavyweight J08 and Yusheng N330 will be gradually launched, which is expected to drive a significant increase in performance during that year. We forecast that the company's 2014-2016 EPS will be 2.25 yuan, 3.14 yuan and 4.03 yuan respectively. Taking into account the company's shareholder background, stable past performance and high dividend ratio, we maintained the target price of HK$33.6 in the previous report, which is equivalent to 11.9 times and 8.6 times PE in 2014. There is room for growth of 20.0% from the current price, and we maintain a highly recommended rating.

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