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亚盛集团(600108):土地统一经营推进较慢 业绩低于预期

齊魯證券 ·  Apr 29, 2014 00:00  · Researches

Event: The company announced its 2013 annual report and its 2014 quarterly report. The company achieved operating income of 2,337 billion yuan in 2013, an increase of 4.04% over the previous year, net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 380 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15.98%, equivalent to EPS of 0.195 yuan, net profit after deduction of 322 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.38%, equivalent to EPS of 0.165 yuan, and the 2013 annual report fell short of expectations; the company's 2013 dividend plan was 0.20 yuan per 10 shares (tax included); the company's 2014 dividend The first quarter achieved revenue of 494 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.55%, and realized net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 53.87 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15.31%, equivalent to 0.028 yuan in EPS. The slow pace of progress in unified land management area is the main reason why the overall performance in 2013 fell short of expectations. According to the company's annual report, “In terms of business model transformation, the unified business model is being promoted, but the overall speed is slower than expected,” we expect that the unified land management area in 2013 should be around 300,000 mu, an increase of about 10% over 2012, and about 70,000 mu lower than our previous expectations. 2014 was the first exercise performance assessment period for the company's equity incentives. According to previous equity incentive exercise conditions, the company's performance after deduction in 2014 needed to reach 0.28 yuan, an increase of 70% over 2013. We believe that it will be difficult for the company to complete the conditions for exercising equity incentives, but the company is currently speeding up the promotion of unified land management area. If the company successfully completes the promotion plan that has not yet been completed in 2013, it is still possible to achieve the equity incentive conditions in 2014. Yasheng Group is a typical land resource company. After the asset injection of three major farms, including Dunhuang, was completed at the beginning of the year, the company's land reserves increased to 4.15 million mu, of which 1.7 million mu of arable land area reached 1.7 million mu. However, the process of value release was not achieved overnight; it was a medium to long-term process. At present, the share of the unified business area of the company's land is still low. After gradually resolving the distribution of “company-tenant” benefits, future unified business area growth is the main driving force for the release of the company's performance. But at the same time, we must also acknowledge the tortuous nature of this process. The release of land resource value by Yasheng Group is a medium- to long-term process. The EPS for 2014-2016 is expected to be 0.24 yuan, 0.27 yuan, and 0.30 yuan, respectively. According to 30X2014PE, the target price is 7.2 yuan, and the DCF absolute valuation is 8.72 yuan. Combining the PE and DCF valuation results, the company's target is set at 8 yuan, downgrading the rating from “buying” to “increasing holdings.” We believe that the driving factors for the rise in the company's stock price include two aspects: (1) performance growth brought about by the increase in unified land management area; and (2) valuation increases brought about by land policy. In the short term, we believe that there is insufficient momentum to promote a rise in stock prices through improved performance. We tend that the second half of the year, with the intensive release of agricultural policies, will be a catalyst for the company's stock price to rise, and the best time to buy should be announced later. Risk warning: Consolidated business area growth falls short of expectations, risk of natural disasters.

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