Main points of investment
Investment logic: 1, turbocharged engine has become the development trend of the industry, the company as the largest turbocharger production national enterprise is expected to benefit; 2, the company is the high-quality assets of auto parts under Changan Group, or it is expected to become a listing platform for auto parts of Changan Group through asset injection. Turbocharged engine has become the development trend of the industry. With the approaching of the limit of automobile fuel consumption and the increase of carbon dioxide emission reduction pressure, the advantages of turbocharger in energy saving, power improvement and environmental protection appear step by step. In recent years, Japanese new car planning and independent brand cars began to launch turbocharged engine models on a large scale, and turbocharged engine has become the development trend of the industry. We estimate that the domestic market demand in 2014 may exceed 7 million, with a scale of nearly 10 billion yuan, and the compound growth rate of the turbocharger industry will reach 15-20% in the next few years.
The company is the largest national brand of turbochargers. The company has sold about 650000 turbochargers in the past 13 years, with a domestic market share of more than 10%. At present, the turbocharger is mainly equipped with diesel engine. Gasoline engines are working on more than ten supporting projects, and have begun to supply small quantities, with estimated sales of 1-15000 units in 14 years. It has been researching and developing more than 20 projects with more than ten independent brand vehicle factories except SAIC in China, and the gasoline supercharger is expected to become a new performance growth point of the company in the future.
Changan Group parts platform, there are asset injection expectations. We believe that the company, as a high-quality auto parts enterprise of Changan Group, or draw lessons from the model of "Huayu Automobile + SAIC Group", through asset injection, to build a listing platform for auto parts of Changan Group.
Investment suggestion: with the use of turbocharger engine has become a trend, we think that Hunan Tianyan, as the largest turbine independent brand enterprise in China, will usher in a greater opportunity. However, the company's product structure adjustment (increasing the proportion of gasoline turbocharger business) is still facing greater pressure. The current gasoline turbine development is in its infancy and is expected to usher in a period of high growth in two years' time. Measures such as reducing staff and increasing efficiency of the company to strengthen internal management are expected to improve the efficiency of the company to a certain extent. We estimate that the 14-year, 15-year and 16-year EPS will be 0.068 yuan, 0.079 yuan and 0.101 yuan, and the corresponding dynamic PE will be 55.6,47.8,37.4 times. Considering the current high valuation of the company, it is given a "neutral" rating for the first time.
Risk tips: macroeconomic downturn; raw material prices rose sharply; gasoline turbocharging expansion slowed: turbocharger prices fell sharply.
