The company's main business is textiles, coal, road tolls, etc., and the net profit is mainly contributed by Dongfeng Yueda Kia, which has a 25% stake. The automobile business is progressing steadily at Dongfeng Yueda Kia's third plant. Currently, the equipment is still being gradually delivered and installed. It is estimated that by the end of 2014, the three plants will have an annual production capacity of 300,000 vehicles. In addition to the annual production capacity of the first and second plants, Yueda Kia will have a total production capacity of 730,000 vehicles, and the next three plants will have a maximum production capacity of 1 million vehicles. The company's sales target for 2014 was 650,000 units (up 18.9% year on year), and 40% of the company's sales target for the first 5 months was 260,000 units. The new K4 sedan will be put into production in August 2014. This car is on the same platform as Hyundai's famous map. The model is between the K3 and K5. We expect the K4 to contribute to sales volume of around 25,000 units within 4 years. In the next few years, Yueda Kia will launch at least 1 new model every year. In 2015, it will make a compact SUV with the same platform as the Hyundai IX25, the domestic Sorento, a mid-size SUV in the same class as Hyundai's new Shengda, and in 2017, it will position the domestic high-end sedan K7 higher than the K5. Yueda Kia's development blueprint for the next few years has become clearly visible as the three plants are put into operation early this year (originally scheduled to be put into operation in mid-2014, then brought forward to the first quarter), production capacity climbs, and 1-2 new products are launched every year. We expect Yueda Kia's sales volume to be 65/71/800,000 units in 2014/2015/2016. Considering that the three factories were put into operation in 2014 and the new sedan was launched in the second half of this year, we judge that Yueda Kia's net interest rate declined sequentially in 2014. It is estimated that in 2014/2015/2016, Yueda Kia's net profit equivalent to earnings per share is 1.32/1.56/1.86 yuan (2013 Yueda Kia contributed equity net profit equivalent to 1.22 yuan per share). Other businesses maintain the status quo. Apart from automobiles, other businesses generally maintain an annual net profit contribution of around 0.2 yuan per share. Among them, textile tractors contribute losses, highway tolls, and power plants contribute profits. In addition, the company has financial expenses of about 200 million dollars per year (mainly loan interest paid on behalf of highways). In 2014, losses in the tractor textile business are expected to remain flat month-on-month, profits contributed by the highway toll business will remain flat and fall slightly, and the coal business will change from profit to loss. Overall, in 2014, the company excluded the equity and net profit contributed by automobiles, and other business contributions will drop slightly from month to month. Profit forecasts and investment suggestions from Yueda Kia's automobile business contributes more than 1 billion dollars in net profit to the company every year. With the commissioning of the three plants, Yueda Kia's new production capacity is released in an orderly manner. Every year, 1-2 new cars are domestically produced. The new products cover sedans and SUVs. The growth of the automobile business in the next few years is clearly visible. We adjusted the company's performance forecast based on the latest situation in each area of the company's business, lowered the performance forecast for the coal and road toll business, and lowered the profitability level of the automobile business in 2014. Adjusted the company's earnings forecast for 2014 and 2015 to be 1.58 yuan and 1.84 yuan (the original forecast value was 1.60/1.80 yuan per share for 2014/2015). Currently, the company's dynamic PE is only 5.8 times, with a market value of 7.8 billion yuan. The valuation is low, and the “recommended” rating is maintained. Risk warning 1) The passenger car industry is not doing well; 2) losses in other businesses have exceeded expectations.
悦达投资 (600805) :悦达起亚三工厂投产、新品投放有序推进
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