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铁岭新城(000809)调研报告:国家湿地公园催升土地价值 新城扩区将水到渠成

申銀萬國 ·  May 28, 2014 00:00  · Researches

Key investment points: The development of national wetland parks is accelerating, and it is time to improve the quality of new cities. 1) Lianhua Lake National Wetland Park is adjacent to the north side of Tieling New Town. The park has gradually entered a mature period since 2012. Currently, the number of visitors has increased rapidly, and the number of visitors has exceeded 600,000 in 2013. Since there are few water systems and wetlands in the Northeast region, and heavy industry pollution is relatively serious, Lianhua Lake has great appeal to surrounding residents. The Tieling municipal government will further increase the park's catering, lodging, public transportation and other supporting facilities this year to further attract more visitors. Meanwhile, the second phase of the Lianhua Lake Wetland Park project has now begun. It is planned that by the end of 2020, the park area will exceed 30 square kilometers. 2) The construction and maturity of Lianhua Lake National Wetland Park has, on the one hand, improved the natural ecological environment and commercial atmosphere of Tieling New Town. At the same time, the increase in the number of visitors will also bring more popularity and commercial development opportunities to Tieling New Town, and jointly promote the increase in land and residential value in the Tieling New Town area near the lake. The Lianhua Lake area is gradually maturing, and the new city expansion area will be completed. 1) Tieling New Town has a planned area of 22 square kilometers. Currently, only about 1.8 square kilometers (2,700 acres) south of the Fanhe River have not been completed or developed, and the company's subsequent new business needs to be expanded urgently. 2) At present, as the development of Lianhua Lake Wetland Park matures, commercial support activities such as lake-side sightseeing, entertainment, catering, and lodging have been established and are becoming more and more active. The next step in expanding the scope of Tieling New Town to Lianhua Lake and surrounding areas has been completed. 3) It is estimated that the area surrounding Lianhua Lake can be developed about 20,000 mu of supporting land, which is equivalent to 20 times the current annual land sales volume of Tieling New Town. In the future, it can be used for tourism, pension, commercial and high-end housing. Once the expansion of the new city is realized, the company has a natural competitive advantage in undertaking first-level land development along Lianhua Lake. If the company is able to undertake the primary development of this portion of land, RNAV will increase significantly. Investment proposal: The development of Lianhua Lake National Wetland Park is becoming more mature, boosting the value of land along the lake, and the Tieling New Town expansion area will also be completed. The company's current valuation is below the industry average, maintaining an increase in holdings rating. At present, the development of Lianhua Lake National Wetland Park is gradually maturing, and the natural ecological environment and commercial atmosphere have been improved, jointly promoting the increase in land and housing values in the Tieling New Town area near the lake, while also bringing about the need for expansion of Tieling New Town. If the company is able to undertake first-level land development in an extended area, RNAV will increase significantly. Without considering the impact of regional expansion for the time being, we expect the company's EPS in 14-16 to be 0.73, 0.73, and 0.74 yuan, respectively, and the corresponding PE of 6.5, 6.5, and 6.5 times, respectively, which is lower than the average level of first-level development companies by 22 times, maintaining the “increase in holdings” rating.

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