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中飞股份(300489)新股分析:专注核电铝材 借势起飞

西南證券 ·  Jun 23, 2015 00:00  · Researches

Zhongfei Co., Ltd. (300489) is a core supplier of aluminum for nuclear power in China. The industry segment in which the company is located is the processing and manufacturing of high-performance aluminum alloy materials for special equipment for nuclear fuel processing. Currently, more than 80% of the structural materials for special equipment in China are high-performance aluminum alloy materials. Since special equipment is closely related to nuclear safety and the application of nuclear energy, currently only a few countries in the world have mastered relevant manufacturing technology, the special equipment manufacturing industry has always been an industry approved by the state, and its industrial concentration is very high. At the same time, domestic manufacturers of aluminum alloy materials for special equipment have implemented a supplier selection system. Currently, only three participating research units have been selected as suppliers of aluminum alloy materials for special equipment, so the barriers to entry into this industry are extremely high. The company has a full range of categories, large market share, and high gross margin. At present, the company has mastered all production technologies for this series of high-performance aluminum alloy materials for this equipment. With the gradual improvement of production equipment and the increase in customer demand, the company can provide customers with all specifications and varieties of high-performance aluminum alloy materials. The sales volume of products provided by the company to this industry in 2014 accounted for about 38% of total market purchases, ranking first. In 2012-2014, the company's gross sales margin was basically stable at around 40%, far exceeding that of ordinary aluminum processing enterprises in the industry. The industry has strong support and broad prospects. Zhongfei Co., Ltd. has seized the favorable opportunity for the rapid development of China's nuclear power industry and achieved rapid development in its main business income. In the context of the continuous growth of China's nuclear power industry, aluminum alloy materials used in special equipment as the main component materials for special equipment will also face good development opportunities. Meanwhile, in the process of the country's strong promotion of localization, domestic suppliers of materials for special equipment for nuclear power plants will benefit greatly. The nuclear fuel industry is an important part of the development of the nuclear industry and a key link in ensuring the supply of nuclear power, and the manufacture of special equipment for nuclear fuel processing is also an important part of this key link. Aluminum alloy materials account for about 80% of the material composition of special equipment, which directly drives the development of aluminum alloy materials manufacturing for special equipment in China. Profit forecast. The company's 2015-2017 EPS (after dilution) is estimated to be 0.91 yuan, 1.00 yuan, and 1.31 yuan respectively. Considering all factors, it is reasonable to give the company a valuation of 60-80 times in 2015, corresponding to a reasonable valuation range of 54.6-72.8 yuan. Risk warning: changes in nuclear power industry policy, fluctuations in raw material prices, risks caused by customer concentration, etc.

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