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吉鑫科技(601218):具备高业绩弹性的风电铸件龙头

廣發證券 ·  May 19, 2014 00:00  · Researches

The company is the world's largest wind power casting company, leading in comprehensive strength. The company is mainly engaged in the development and production of wind power components. Its products include wind power castings such as wheels, bases, and bearing seats. At present, the company has formed a one-stop supporting production capacity for molds, casting, processing and coating of key components of wind power, and is the world's largest manufacturer of wind power castings. The company's comprehensive strength is in a leading position in the industry, with a market share of about 30-40% in 2013. The main customers include GE, VESTAS, and Goldwind Technology, among the world's top ten fan manufacturers. The wind power industry is gradually recovering, and the new installed capacity will grow steadily in the future. The new installed capacity of global wind power in 2013 was 35.47 GW, a decrease of 20.83% compared to 2012. The new installed capacity of global wind power in 2014-2016 will maintain a growth rate of more than 10%. In 2013, the new installed capacity of wind power in China was 16.1 GW, an increase of 24.23% over the previous year. This is also the first time that positive growth has been achieved since the negative increase in new installed capacity in 2011 and 2012. In 2014, China's new wind power installations are expected to reach 18-20GW, with a year-on-year growth rate of around 10%-20%. The company's size and technology advantages are obvious, and the gross margin is flexible. The company has advantages in various aspects such as scale, technology, and customers, good cost control, and outstanding comprehensive strength. With the recovery of the wind power industry and the increase in the sales share of castings for the company's fans of 3 MW and above, the product structure has been optimized. At the same time, the company's output has increased, fixed costs have been further reduced, and gross margin has a lot of room for increase under stable sales prices. At the same time, the company expanded production capacity through technological reform and acquisitions to further increase market share and enhance the competitiveness and voice of the industry. The company has sufficient cash on hand, and future development is worth looking forward to by 14Q1. The company has cash on account close to 400 million, and the balance ratio is only 27.80%. Therefore, while doing a good job in strengthening the main wind power casting business, the company has the ability to increase operating leverage to expand new profit growth points in the future. Profit forecast and valuation We expect the company's 2014-2016 EPS to be 0.21 yuan, 0.34 yuan, and 0.43 yuan respectively, and the company's reasonable value is 6 yuan, covering the “buy” rating for the first time. Risk warning: The recovery of the wind power industry is lower than expected risk; the risk of capacity expansion falling short of expectations.

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