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平潭发展(000592):市政项目再传捷报 后续成长可期

國海證券 ·  Jun 18, 2014 00:00  · Researches

Incident: On the evening of June 16, Pingtan Development issued an announcement stating that the owner (Pingtan Comprehensive Experimental Zone Transportation and Construction Bureau) published the bid evaluation results on the Pingtan Comprehensive Experimental Zone Tender Information Network and determined that the company was the first successful candidate for the Jinjingwan Sewage Treatment Plant (Phase 1) Project and the Sansong Reclaimed Water Plant Project BOT Project. Profit forecasts, valuations, and investment suggestions Because the company's profit settlement of the Zhongfu Plaza project will not be settled until 2015, we have updated the company's profit forecast to estimate that the company's earnings per share from 2014 to 2016 were 0.12 yuan, 0.57 yuan, and 0.78 yuan, respectively. The corresponding PE valuations were 68.38 times, 14.07 times, and 10.42 times, respectively. Based on the 2015 performance estimate, the company's valuation is reasonable. Considering the company's woodland assets of about 1 million mu, the company has benefited from the construction of Pingtan Island and has huge development prospects, giving the company an investment rating of “increase in wealth.” Risk indicates the revenue risk of the main business. Since the company's main business is highly dependent on the real estate boom, if the real estate market declines, it will clearly affect the profits of the company's main business. The implementation risk part of the Pingtan Island project in the Pingtan Comprehensive Development Zone has not yet been fully finalized, and there is still a possibility that the company will fail to win the project. Accounts receivable risk. Most of the company's Pingtan development projects are government projects, so there are no credit issues with payment. However, the collection period of accounts receivable for government projects is usually longer than that of ordinary projects, which may have a certain impact on the company's cash flow. Forestry policy risks. Protecting the environment and returning farming to forests are still the general trend of our country's national policy. Due to the high revenue of the company's forestry projects but low gross profit, if national policy factors affect forestry, the performance of the company's main business will fluctuate greatly. Risk of inexperience entering a new neighborhood. The company's Pingtan project has risks of talent shortages, management risks and technical risks after entering a new industry.

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