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乾景园林(603778)新股研究:市政+地产双轮驱动 融资多元化解决增长困境

海通證券 ·  Jul 1, 2015 00:00  · Researches

Hui Quanfu and Yang Jing are the actual controllers of the company. According to the calculation of the largest shares issued, Huiquanfu and Yang Jing directly hold a total of 54.76% of the company's shares and are the actual controllers of the company. In addition to this, company director Lan Nu also holds 1.91% of the company's shares, and supervisor Liu Zhixue holds 0.38% of the company's shares; regional expansion is progressing smoothly, and municipal business has increased dramatically. The company is mainly engaged in landscape engineering construction, accounting for about 95% of the revenue from the construction business in 2014, and achieved operating income of 603 million yuan for the full year of 2014, an increase of 3.06% over the previous year. Among them, real estate and municipal garden revenue were 39.60% and 60.40%, respectively, and net profit attributable to the parent company was 81.3 million yuan, up 7.55% year on year, and gross margin decreased slightly by 1.23 percentage points to 26.19%. The company's operating cash flow for the year was 51.12 million yuan, a significant net outflow from the same period in 2013 of 140 million yuan. Cross-regional business advantages are outstanding, business in the northwest and southern China regions has grown dramatically, and there are many award-winning projects, and brand advantages are evident; at the industry level: the development trend of the two major owners is improving, and the expansion of the industrial chain has begun a second period of growth. The policy and capital aspects continue to relax, and the rise in prosperity in the real estate industry will continue to rise for a period of 12-15 months. The functions of local government financing platforms are gradually weakening, and the government is vigorously promoting the PPP model. Financial subsidies for future PPP projects should be included separately in the general public budget and government fund budget management according to the nature of expenditure, forming a stronger repayment guarantee. The garden industry is an asset-light, capital-intensive industry, and epitaxial expansion is not difficult. The transformation from listed A-share garden enterprises to mainly includes: vertical expansion of the industrial chain, including front-end design, ecological restoration, etc.; horizontal expansion, intervention in environmental protection, cultural tourism and other related industries; high municipal gross profit but slow repayment, and diversification of financing channels to solve the growth dilemma. Since 2012, the company has adjusted its business model, and the share of municipal gardens has increased dramatically. While bringing high growth and high gross profit, accounts receivable plus inventory account for 96% of revenue, and cash flow seriously constrains the company's development. Of the capital raised this time, 188 million yuan will be used to supplement liquidity, and after listing, with diversification of financing channels, it is expected that high growth will resume. It raised 390 million yuan, mainly to supplement liquidity and build a production base for seedlings. This time, the company plans to issue 2 million shares privately, accounting for 25% of the total share capital after issuance. The actual capital raised was 390 million yuan to supplement liquidity and build a production base for seedlings. After the funds raised were put in place, the ability to undertake the project was further improved. The fund-raising project reached after delivery, significantly increasing the self-sufficiency rate of seedlings and increasing profitability; the reasonable value range was 42.85 yuan to 58.97 yuan. Based on the maximum share capital after issuance, the estimated EPS for 15-16 is 1.22 yuan and 1.42 yuan respectively. According to the current rules for issuing new shares, we expect the issue price to be 22.19 yuan, which is about 18 times the PE for 15 years. We recommend asking for a price. Referring to the valuation level of similar listed companies, they were given 35-40 times PE for 15 years, with a reasonable value range of 42.85 to 58.97 yuan; risk warning: risk of loss of core talent, risk of repayment, risk of order delay.

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