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北大医药(000788)收购预案点评:收购一体医疗 构建肿瘤治疗产业链

華創證券 ·  Jun 23, 2014 00:00  · Researches

The company announced plans to issue shares to purchase assets and raise supporting capital and related transactions: 1) It intends to acquire 100% of the shares of Integrated Healthcare by issuing shares at an issue price of 13.29 yuan; 2) It intends to raise supporting capital of 466,659,997 yuan from Beijing Zhonghe and non-public shares. The issue price is also 13.29 yuan. Key points 1. The PE corresponding to the acquisition target in 14-15 years was 19 or 15 times, far lower than PE of similar listed companies. The company plans to use 1,402 billion yuan to acquire 100% of the shares of Integrated Healthcare. At the same time, the counterparty promised that if the transaction was completed in 2014, the net profit after deduction in 14 to 16 would reach at least 0.75, 0.93, and 124 million yuan respectively, and the CAGR would be 29%. If completed in 15, the net profit after deduction for 15 to 17 would reach at least 0.93, 1.24, and 149 million yuan respectively, and the CAGR would be 27%. Otherwise, the counterparty would be compensated with the company's shares subscribed in this transaction, that is, the company has the right to pay the total price of RMB 1 Purchase compensation shares. According to this estimate, the PE acquired by the company in 14 to 15 years of integrated health care was 19 and 15 times, respectively, while the PE of similar listed companies in 14 to 15 was about 40 and 30 times, respectively, which is far lower than PE of similar listed companies. 2. Integrated medicine is an overall solution service provider for cancer diagnosis and treatment equipment, supported by R&D, production and marketing of cutting-edge treatment equipment and supporting products. The integrated medical business model has four categories: equipment sales, cooperative sharing, equipment leasing, and technical services. Among them, the first two models were the main sources of revenue, accounting for 37.2% and 62.8% of revenue from January to April 2014, respectively. Equipment sales refer to the sale of products such as gamma knives, ultrasound cirrhosis detectors, full-body heat therapy systems, full-body red light treatment systems, etc., with independent intellectual property rights, and a small amount of radiotherapy and imaging equipment distributed in response to customer needs. As the market popularity of integrated medical cirrhosis detectors increases, the share of equipment sales revenue will further increase. Cooperative sharing means that integrated medicine uses self-produced equipment and outsourced equipment, such as linear accelerators, PET/CT, and other large-scale medical equipment and technical and support services, as investment. Medical institutions invest in space, computer rooms, and medical technicians, and the two sides cooperate to establish cancer diagnosis and treatment departments or centers. Integrated medical care recovers investment in stages and obtains benefits according to the agreed share ratio. 3. Acquire integrated medical care and build a cancer treatment industry chain. The company already has four anti-tumor adjuvant drugs, including Yunzhi cytocytic glycopeptide and paronosetron, and is also researching various anti-tumor drugs, such as the original drug, campridine disodium phosphate, etc. Integrated medicine, on the other hand, forms four major product lines of “radiotherapy, heat therapy, light therapy, and ultrasound diagnosis.” The main products are all targeted at the treatment and diagnosis of oncological diseases. The acquisition of integrated medicine extended the company from an anti-tumor drug manufacturer to a provider of cancer diagnosis and treatment equipment and its overall solutions, forming a relatively complete industrial chain for cancer treatment. 4. Investment advice. Without considering the increasing effects of this acquisition on the company's performance, it is estimated that the EPS for 14-16 will be 0.16, 0.20, and 0.24 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 85, 68, and 55 times, giving it a “recommended” rating. 5. Risk Warning: Risk of an Unapproved Acquisition

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