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凤形股份(002760)新股定价:凤鸣朝阳 业绩发展可期

華創證券 ·  Jun 9, 2015 00:00  · Researches

Key Investment Company is a high-tech enterprise specializing in R&D, production, sales and technical services of wear-resistant materials in the field of metal castings. 1. A leader in the metal wear-resistant materials segment. Fengxing Co., Ltd. is a leading enterprise in wear-resistant material casting products in China, and is also one of the top 100 comprehensive enterprises in the national foundry industry. In 2012, 2013, and 2014, the production and sales volume exceeded 70,000 tons for three consecutive years. It ranked first in the domestic abrasive ball and grinding section products for wear-resistant materials, and the product market share ranked first in the same industry. 2. The market prospects are broad. As the implementation of the national energy saving and emission reduction policy continues to increase, the pressure on energy-intensive enterprises such as building materials, cement, metallurgical mines, and thermal power generation to save energy and reduce emissions is also increasing, and the demand for wear-resistant products with higher wear resistance, better energy efficiency, and lower wear and tear is constantly increasing. China's demand for wear-resistant ball segments will maintain a steady growth trend in the next few years. It is estimated that by 2015, the market demand for wear-resistant balls in China will reach 2.104 million tons, an increase of 40.24% over 2010. 3. The R&D institution is perfect, and the production process is leading. The issuer is a provincial high-tech enterprise recognized by the Anhui Provincial Science and Technology Department, and has been rated as an excellent high-tech enterprise many times. In 2009, the company also declared plans to establish the “Anhui Wear-Resistant Materials Engineering Technology Research Center”. The center has a wear-resistant materials research center, a material testing center, and a quality inspection center. The thermostatic casting process, heat treatment process, and melting process are in the leading position in the industry and have reached the international advanced level. 4. The fund-raising project will improve the company's production capacity of high-performance wear-resistant material products and raise the level of technology research and development. Demand for high-performance wear-resistant materials in downstream applications continues to grow, and fund-raising projects can add 50,000 tons/year of wear-resistant ball section production capacity, thereby further increasing the market share of the company's products and consolidating the company's advantages as a leading enterprise in the domestic wear-resistant casting industry. The technology center construction project provides technical support for the company's production; introduces key talents and expands the size of the R&D team. 5. Profit forecasting and valuation. EPS is estimated to be 0.53 yuan, 0.55 yuan, and 0.60 yuan respectively in 2015-2017. We believe that the company's dynamic price-earnings ratio in 2015 is 35-40 times more reasonable, corresponding to a reasonable price range of 18.55 yuan to 21.2 yuan. Risks indicate the risk of weakness in the downstream industry, the risk of market development for fund-raising projects, and increased market competition.

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