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安源煤业(600397)深度报告:伞型电商打开成长空间 国企改革提升估值

招商證券 ·  Jun 29, 2015 00:00  · Researches

Join hands with Pan-Asia to create a new umbrella e-commerce platform and open up room for growth. Its Jiangxi Coal Trading Center develops multi-type e-commerce across regions, develops e-commerce sub-platforms based on comprehensive membership, and extends to other commodities such as kaolin and coke based on coal. The future goal is to develop into a trading platform for industrial products. With the launch of the coke business on the platform, future traffic is expected to continue to rise rapidly, further opening up room for growth. The group changed its name to Jiangxi Energy Group to clearly develop a comprehensive energy strategy. The group proposed a new energy development and “going global” strategy in its next three-year plan to accelerate the construction of the three major thermal power plants, photovoltaic power generation, and coal-to-gas projects. The company is closely following the Group's transformation and is expected to benefit from the construction of the Group's non-coal energy projects, and a revaluation of value can be expected. State-owned enterprise reforms have improved efficiency, and the Group can be expected to inject high-quality non-coal assets. In the future, non-coal high-quality asset projects within the Group are expected to be injected into listed companies after the Group has cultivated them. At the same time, it is not ruled out that some related energy projects will be directly incubated at the level of listed companies. At the same time, the difficulties caused by the downturn in the coal industry were changed through internal reforms, layoffs and salary cuts, technological innovation, and cost control. Maintain a “Highly Recommended - A” investment rating. We anticipate the rapid development of e-commerce platforms in the future to create innovative supply chain finance platforms across regions, benefiting from the Internet+ boom, group transformation and development, and state-owned enterprise reform. Existing businesses are valued at 2.5 times P/B for coal companies with state-owned enterprise reform expectations. The company's latest net assets are 3.54 yuan per share, and existing businesses can be valued at 8.9 yuan. Referring to supply chain finance and Internet+ concepts, the e-commerce business can roughly be estimated at a market value of 15 billion dollars. On the basis of 50% equity, a value of 7.5 yuan per share is granted. The company's e-commerce platform began to get involved in other industrial product transactions, such as the coke business (500 billion worth, minus 40% of the coke produced by steel, and 300 billion dollars). According to the previous algorithm, a market value of 4.5 billion yuan can be given, and each share is worth 2.3 yuan based on 50% equity. We gave a target range of 18-20 yuan to maintain a “Highly Recommended - A” investment rating. Risk warning: E-commerce platform development falls short of expectations.

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