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乾景园林(603778)新股分析:园林新秀 合理价格38.41~43.90元

申萬宏源研究 ·  Jul 4, 2015 00:00  · Researches

Key investment points: A garden rookie who places equal emphasis on real estate and municipal gardens. The company is mainly engaged in garden engineering construction, landscape design, seedling planting, and landscaping maintenance. Among them, the share of real estate landscape in the company's revenue in the past three years has dropped from 60% to 40%, while the share of municipal greening business has increased from 40% to 60%. In 2014, the company's revenue was 603 million yuan, net profit was 81.29 million, and the CAGR for the past three years was 13.9%/14.4%, respectively. The main downstream customers of the landscaping industry include government departments at all levels, their infrastructure construction investors, real estate developers, and enterprises and institutions with greening needs, etc., with a market size of 100 billion dollars. From 2000 to 2014, the compound annual growth rate of total investment in real estate development in China was 23.44%. Based on future annual growth of 5%, of which 2% will be used for garden investment, China's real estate and garden market capacity in 2018 was about 231 billion yuan. In 2013, China's urban landscaping investment reached 164.74 billion yuan, with an average compound annual growth rate of 20.45% since 2008. According to estimates of future annual growth of 5%, municipal landscaping investment will reach 210.3 billion yuan in 2018. The company's competitive advantages are clear: 1) Qualifications and brands. The company has the first-class qualification of an urban landscaping enterprise and a special grade A for landscape engineering design. According to the “Survey Report on the Status of Urban Landscaping Enterprises in China 2011-2012”, the company's overall competitiveness ranked 20th in the country. Representative projects include the Changbaishan International Tourist Resort landscape project, etc.: 2) Cross-regional management, and has successively carried out business in more than a dozen provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities directly under the Central Government; 3) It has construction capabilities under special physical and geographical conditions, through the high altitude of the plateau Construction in the alpine winter area of Changbai Mountain in Jilin has accumulated rich construction management experience and construction experience under special physical and geographical conditions. Raise capital to help the company grow. The funds raised are intended to be used to supplement the working capital projects of the garden engineering construction business and the construction of ecological forest cultivation bases. The company aims to achieve a compound annual growth rate of more than 40% in main business revenue over the next three years. Risk disclosure. The company's main risks come from the impact of the downturn in the real estate industry, the impact of municipal gardens on government spending policies, and the risk of collection of receivables. Reasonable price range: 38.41 to 43.90 yuan: We expect the company's 2015/2016 EPS to be 1.11/1.29 yuan, respectively, with a reasonable valuation of 38.41 to 43.90 yuan, corresponding to the 2015 trend of PE35X to 40X. The company plans to raise net capital of 39,0044,500 yuan, issuance expenses of 53.7555 million yuan, and issue no more than 20 million shares. If there is no overfunding and full issuance, the theoretical issue price of the company's shares will not exceed 22.19 yuan. Special Reminder: The IPO pricing predicted in this report is not the price performance on the first day of listing, but rather a reasonable price range when the current market environment remains largely unchanged.

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