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隆基机械(002363)点评:卡钳项目投产丰富公司产品线 提升实力

民生證券 ·  Jul 7, 2015 00:00  · Researches

1. Announcement content On July 2, 2015, the company issued the “Fundraising Project Commencement Notice”. The announcement stated that as of June 30, 2015, the equipment related to the pre-fund-raising project (the annual production of 800,000 sets of brake calipers) was completed and officially put into operation. 2. Analysis and judgment caliper projects enrich the company's product line and promote the company to become a first-level supplier of braking systems. The company is a benchmark enterprise for domestic production of brake discs, ordinary brake hubs, load brake hubs, etc., starting with the production of brake discs, and continuously increasing products such as wheels and improving the product line in the later stages. The commencement of production of this caliper project has further enriched the company's product line, increased the company's supply capacity in automobile braking systems, and is expected to provide customers with one-stop service for braking systems. The caliper project is highly profitable and enhances the company's performance. Compared with the company's original products, the caliper product has higher added value and has a higher gross profit margin. We judge that the company's caliper business will enter the high-end European and American markets and the domestic joint venture OEM market, which is expected to increase the company's 2015-2017 operating income by 34 million yuan, 89 million yuan and 112 million yuan, corresponding increases in the company's net profit of 2.93 million yuan, 7.47 million yuan and 9.03 million yuan, increasing the company's EPS by 0.01 yuan, 0.03 yuan, 0.03 yuan. The two-wheel drive model of the company's traditional business upgrade+post-market expansion is gradually taking shape. The company's traditional business market is concentrated in the export AM (after-sales) market and the domestic independent brand OEM (original factory support) market. The company has strong competitiveness in both markets. The improvement of traditional business can only be achieved through continuous improvement of product quality and diversification of product lines to enter domestic joint ventures and foreign OEM markets. The commencement of production of the caliper project is of great significance to the upgrading of the company's traditional business. The company has deployed O2O business in the automotive aftermarket by investing in Che Yi. Che Yi An uses a heavy vertical model to design a management system for the small B end, which is highly sticky to the small B end. We believe that the Che Yi An model is in line with the future development trend of e-commerce, and there is broad scope for future development. 3. Profit forecasts and investment suggestions The two-wheel drive model of Longji Machinery's performance has a clear development path. The quality improvement of traditional business is mainly achieved by enriching product production lines and improving product quality to enter the high-end automobile OEM market. The automotive aftermarket, on the other hand, was rapidly deployed through the Car Easy Security platform, and the company intervened through a supplier alliance model. We judge that both paths of improving the company's performance are expected to achieve major breakthroughs in the near future. In 2015-2017, we expect EPS to be 0.27 yuan, 0.43 yuan, and 0.63 yuan, respectively. The corresponding PE is 100/64/44 times. 4. Risk warning: The development of the new caliper business falls short of expectations, and the development of Car Yi'an falls short of expectations.

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