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乾景园林(603778)新股定价:园林业务齐发展 区域拓展加速

銀河證券 ·  Jul 3, 2015 00:00  · Researches

The company's main business is real estate and municipal landscaping projects, and the industrial chain is complete, ranking among the top 50 urban landscaping enterprises in the country. The company has an integrated business model of seedling cultivation, engineering construction, garden design, and greening maintenance. Its main business is greening engineering construction and landscape design for real estate gardens and municipal gardens. The company's 2014 revenue/net profit was 603/81 million yuan, and the 2012-2014 operating income and net profit CAGR were 14.47% and 14.39%, respectively. The controlling shareholder of the company is Yang Jing, and Hui Quanfu and Yang Jing are the joint actual controllers. The total shareholding ratio before issuance was 73.01%. New urbanization and consumption upgrades have boosted the scale of garden output. It is estimated that the CAGR for real estate gardens and municipal gardens will reach 14.45% and 11.5% respectively from 2010 to 2015. The continuous increase in the urbanization rate is still the main driving force for garden demand, and the demand for improving the public environment and upgrading the quality of housing are the driving forces for improving landscape quality. At present, there are more than 16,000 enterprises in the garden industry. The competitive pattern of the industry gradually favors the first tier of leading enterprises with strong overall competitiveness, and market concentration is constantly increasing. The company's competitors are mainly Palm Garden, Pubang Garden Oriental Garden, Tiehan Ecology, Lingnan Garden, Photosynthetic Garden, Suzhou Garden, etc. The company's competitive advantages: (1) The company has obvious brand advantages and rich project performance: The company has qualifications such as the first-class qualification for urban landscaping enterprises and the special grade A qualification for landscape engineering design; it has successively won honors such as the top 100 greening enterprises in the country and the top 50 national landscaping construction enterprises. (2) Perfect regional layout: The company has set up branches in Guiyang, Changsha, Tongzhou, Hefei, Changchun, Lianjiang, Lanzhou, Zhangzhou, Fusong and Yangzhong. (3) Strong R&D and design capabilities, industrial chain integration: Through the establishment of a science and technology research and development department and cooperation with scientific research institutions, colleges and universities to carry out R&D projects; it has mastered a series of mature application technologies, and the company has integrated service capabilities from landscape design to construction. Drivers of the company's future growth: (1) Complete business structure and integrated expansion of the industrial chain: The company is based in real estate gardens while strengthening municipal greening and ecological construction market development. Improve design capabilities and integrated operation capabilities; strengthen related technological innovation and project research and development. (2) Improve the talent introduction and reserve system: improve the talent recruitment, training and internal promotion and training system, set up technical posts and management posts separately, and establish a reasonable talent echelon. Risk Factors: Risk of high customer concentration. Reasonable valuation range: 41.3-47.2 yuan: We expect the company's 2015-17 EPS to be 1.18/1.37/1.67 yuan, respectively. Comparable companies had an average PE of 42 times in 2015. We think we can give the company 35-40 times PE in 15 years, with a reasonable value range of 41.3-47.2 yuan. The theoretical price corresponding to the company's proposed issuance does not exceed 22.19 yuan.

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