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蓝港互动(8267.HK):从手游到泛娱乐

招商證券(香港) ·  Jul 30, 2015 00:00  · Researches

From mobile games to pan-entertainment, the pan-entertainment strategy will allow the company to gain broader development space. Mobile game products based on popular IP have achieved initial success, but their contribution to profit is yet to be tested and covered for the first time. The target price of HK$8.10 Pan-Entertainment helped the company transform into a comprehensive entertainment group, opening up space for long-term growth. We believe that Blue Port's pan-entertainment strategy will rapidly transform the company from a simple game company to a comprehensive entertainment group integrating business forms such as games, animation, film and television, and online literature. In addition to launching premium mobile games around well-known IPs, the company is also accelerating its layout in the pan-entertainment ecosystem through joint ventures (with famous artist Wu Qilong) and investment mergers and acquisitions (investing in Star Beauty, Mobile Games, Yongle Ticketing, and Axe). Compared to other companies engaged in heavy mobile games, Blue Port's pan-entertainment layout is not limited to the acquisition and adaptation of IP, but rather strives to achieve the implementation of quality IP in various forms such as games, animation, film, television, and literature, thus maximizing the value of creativity. We believe that as the company initially completes its layout in the pan-entertainment sector in 2015, the company's revenue from other entertainment businesses will begin to appear and the distribution of revenue will become more diversified. Boutique IP mobile games are a new focus in 2015, but the profit contribution needs to be tested. Although we are strategically optimistic about the company's “hot IP” to create high-quality new products and the potential commercial value associated with them, we believe that the visibility of these new products to the company's profit contribution in 2015 is still low. We have noticed that although the “One Hundred Thousand Bad Jokes” launched by the company in March was a complete success in the early stages of distribution, achieved revenue of more than 8 million yuan in less than two weeks after launch, and the peak monthly flow rate also exceeded RMB 70 million, it fell out of the top 50 of Apple iOS's revenue list in China two months after launch. In terms of game scheduling, we have noticed that the launch time of games other than The Legend of Zhen Zhen (launched in August) is still uncertain, and we are not yet able to predict their turnover and revenue after launch. Furthermore, it is also difficult for us to judge the flow of mobile game products, video games, and console games that Blue Port has represented this year. In summary, we are conservative about Blue Port's 2015 revenue outlook and will adjust our profit forecast when the company's gaming schedule and operating data become more clear. For the first time, we covered the valuation and ratings and gave Blue Port a neutral rating. On the basis of considering catalysts such as the company's pan-entertainment strategy and premium IP game works, we also fully took into account the impact of uncertainties such as 1) the shorter product life cycle of heavy games; 2) changes in gamers' and market preferences; and 3) the timing of game product launch on the market, on earnings. For the first time, we covered Blue Port Interactive a neutral rating, and gave Chinese game companies listed overseas an average target price of HK$8.10 for the 2015 EPE 12.8x.

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